《內地樓市》中信証券陳聰料第四季內地樓市將迎來復甦起點
中信証券研究部董事總經理陳聰表示,內地房地產市場供求關係已發生重大變化,從嚴限購已經不能滿足市場穩定發展的要求,相信一線以外城市限購有可能取消或明顯優化,而一線城市則或會出台分區優化政策,憧憬今年第四季是樓市復甦起點,銷售有望按季改善,而樓價下跌的預期亦會扭轉,明年開發投資力度預期會較今年有所回升。
他指出,認房不認貸及調降首套首付比例政策的邊際效應明顯,目前一、二線城市房地產市場已開始出現見底跡象。至於現階段政策對低線城市的影響,他則認為在國家因城施策的方針下難以一概而論,要視乎各地需求、地方政府及發展商如何應對及把握去化機會。
他又指,中長期而言配售型保障性住房建設及城中村改造,都有望為房地產市場注入新動能。被問到房企及行業信用風險,陳聰強調企業信用問題不容忽視,但更重要是要解決市場銷售問題,整體政策於8月底9月初出台後近兩星期市場成交情況確實有明顯提升,認為當局仍有按揭貸款利息抵扣稅項等不少政策工具可推出,令購房需求得到釋放,推動整個行業週期見底回升。
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