《大行報告》中金:財政擴張是8月社融反彈最重要原因 政策發力再加速
人行昨中午公布8月新增人民幣貸款1.36萬億人民幣(市場預期1.25萬億人民幣)、8月社會融資規模增量3.12萬億人民幣(市場預期2.69萬億人民幣),中金發表報告表示,人行選擇在昨中午公布8月金融數據,社融與信貸數據均略超市場預期。分項來看,短期貸款和票據融資拉動信貸增長,可能說明私人部門信貸需求尚未明顯反彈。財政擴張是本次社融反彈最重要的原因,相關融資撥付進度較快,未來城中村改造有望成為穩增長的重要抓手。近期部分數據有企穩態勢,該行將繼續關注高頻數據變化以及穩增長政策的落實。
該行指,人行一般在每個月上旬的第一個工作日公布金融數據,時間一般在下午4點至下午6點之間,人行昨天公布金融數據的時間早於往常,更加高效、及時地與市場進行溝通。分項來看,短期貸款和票據融資拉動信貸增長,可能反映私人部門融資需求尚未明顯反彈。
此外,內地居民和企業中長期貸款按年仍在萎縮。8月新增居民中長期貸款1,602億人民幣,按年少增1,056億人民幣;8月新增企業中長期貸款6,444億人民幣,按年少增909億人民幣。從8月末開始,存量房貸利率開始陸續下調,但存量房貸利率相比理財產品的收益率可能仍然較高,房貸償還速度是否因此放緩仍待觀察。
但財政擴張是本次社融反彈最重要的原因,相關融資撥付進度較快,政策發力再加速。8月政府債券淨融資1.18萬億人民幣,按年多增8,714億人民幣。除財政融資之外,准財政融資可能也在加速。8月非金融企業債券淨融資2,698億人民幣,按年多增1,186億人民幣,這其中可能大部分是城投債融資。8月城投債淨融資1,984億人民幣,按年多增613億人民幣。雖然政府淨融資按年大升,但是該行並沒有看到政府存款的明顯上升,8月財政存款淨減少88億人民幣,相比去年同期少減2,484億人民幣,這說明政府融資的撥付進度較快,政策發力再加速。
中金指,近期部分數據有企穩態勢,將繼續關注高頻數據變化以及穩增長政策的落實。
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