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《業績前瞻》券商料農行(01288.HK)中期多賺逾2%至3% 關注營運前景指引
國家金融監督管理總局上月底公布內地銀行上半年淨利潤按年增2.6%,農業銀行(01288.HK)將於下周二(29日)公布今年中期業績,由於宏觀經濟及樓市環境存挑戰,料次季淨息差收窄,本網綜合3間券商預測,農行2023年中期純利料介乎1,319.95億至1,331.22億元人民幣,對比2022年中期1,289.45億元人民幣,按年上升2.4%至3.2%。 人行近日發表次季貨幣政策報告指商銀盈利狀況會隨經濟周期波動,對此應理性看待,投資者將關注農行管理層最新營運前景、涉內房行業信貸風險、派息比率指引等。 宏觀存挑戰 淨利潤微升】 美銀證券預測農行今年中期純利按年升3.2%至1,331億元人民幣,估計中期總體收入按年升1.3%,料淨利息收收入2,929.49億人民幣按年跌2.4%,淨息差按年收窄35個基點至1.67%,料非利息收入按年升19.6%至732.26億人民幣,料貸款撥備支出按年升12.5%至104.4億人民幣 摩根大通預測農行今年中期純利按年升2.8%至1,325.6億元人民幣,料第二季純利按年升4%至610.06億元人民幣,料次季總體收入1,984.02億人民幣按年跌2%,料次季淨利息收入按年跌6%至1,408.6億人民幣,估計第二季末息差錄1.69%(按年收窄27個基點及按季收窄1個基點),料不良貸款比率1.35%,料非利息收入按年升8%至575.42億人民幣,估計股本回報率9.1%。 摩通表示,預期農行次季淨息差將按季收窄,幅度少於第一季,又指投資者應關注管理層對新增貸款息率變化及未來淨息差趨勢,以及現有按揭貸款定價或重新商議的可能性。該行亦預期農行次季費用收入溫和改善,受強勁保險經紀銷售及理財業務回穩。 ----------------------------------------------------- 本網綜合3間券商預測,農行2023年中期純利料介乎1,319.95億至1,331.22億元人民幣,對比2022年中期1,289.45億元人民幣,按年上升2.4%至3.2%。 券商│2023年上半年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅 美銀證券│1,331.22億元│+3.2% 摩根大通│1,325.6億元│+2.8% 野村│1,319.95億元│+2.4% 按農行2022年中期純利1,289.45億元人民幣計算。 ----------------------------------------------------- 摩根大通及美銀證券預測,農行2023年上半年撥備前經營溢利料介乎2,559.09億2,628.81億元人民幣,對比上年度同期2,618.88億元人民幣,按年下跌2.2%至增加0.5%。 券商│2023年上半年撥備前經營溢利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅 美銀證券│2,628.81億元│+0.5% 摩根大通│2,559.09億元│-2.2% 按農行2022年中期撥備前經營溢利2,616.88億元人民幣計算。
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