《大行報告》高盛升中國宏橋(01378.HK)目標價至6.3元 評級「沽售」
高盛發表研究報告指,中國宏橋(01378.HK)上半年淨利潤按年倒退69%至24.57億元人民幣,剔除匯兌損失等一次性項目後,經常性淨利潤按年跌68%至27.88億元人民幣,高於該行預期,相信主要是由於期內鋁成本下降,但低於市場預期。
上半年公司鋁產品銷量按年增長2%至310萬噸,較高盛預期高5%。高盛預測上半年鋁產品均價達到每噸約16,642元人民幣,按年下跌12%,與同期上海期貨交易所鋁價下跌幅度一致。上半年鋁產量單位銷貨成本每噸15,109元人民幣,較預期低3%,令單位毛利遠高於預期。
考慮到鋁生產成本下降及聯營公司收入增加,高盛將宏橋2023至2025年盈利預測上調4%至27%,目標價從6元上調至6.3元,但由於目前上海期貨交易所鋁價及價差已見頂,加上雲南供應加速,供需緊張關係緩和,而現價相當於今明兩年預測市盈率10-11倍,遠高於歷史平均的6倍,故維持「沽售」評級。
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