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報道指內地存量房貸「降息」在即 內銀減負料有新招
據《中證報》報道,內地金融管理部門近日明確,指導商業銀行依法有序調整存量個人住房貸款利率,在正面回應存量房貸利率「降不降」的關切的同時,也將社會討論引向「怎麼降」的問題。 北京、鄭州等地多家商業銀行工作人員均表示,關於存量房貸利率怎麼降,銀行層面暫時還沒有明確的政策。多位業內專家表示,調整存量房貸利率或可通過借貸雙方協商、大型銀行發揮「頭雁」作用等多種方式推進。在此過程中,銀行淨息差承壓值得關注。監管部門或通過引導降低存款利率、實施降準等進一步降低銀行負債成本。業界普遍認為,存量房貸「降息」落地只是時間問題。 據光大證券金融業首席分析師王一峰測算,現階段存量按揭貸款利率為4.5%至4.7%。人民銀行此前公布,上半年,新發放個人住房貸款加權平均利率為4.18%。中信建投證券首席經濟學家黃文濤認為,調整存量房貸利率,可減緩個人住房貸款早償現像,也能夠減少居民房貸支出、修復居民資產負債表。 王一峰表示,今年一季度末,內地商業銀行淨息差為1.74%,較2022年末大幅收窄17個基點,年內或跌破1.7%。若本輪存量房貸利率調整落地,銀行淨息差可能收窄至1.6%左右,加強負債成本管控的必要性進一步上升。 據國盛證券首席經濟學家熊園測算,截至今年6月,中國存量房貸規模為38.6萬億元人民幣(下同),其中利率明顯偏高的主要在2018年一季度至2022年一季度發放,約13.8萬億元。若將這部分存量房貸利率全部調降至當前新發房貸利率的水平,粗略估算,將減少商業銀行利潤約1,200億元。
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