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復甦邏輯不斷兑現,中國平安(601318.SH/2318.HK)A+H股雙雙升超3%

7月3日,港A兩地股市表現活躍,持續走高。富途牛牛數據顯示,港股恒指升2.14%,A股上證指數升1.31%,深證成指升0.59%,創業板指升0.60%。

其中,保險板塊強勢拉昇,保險頭部企業中國平安H股收升3.21%,A股收升3.84%。當日主力淨流入3.94億元,近5日主力淨流入4.38億元,均位列保險行業第1。最近90天內共有28家機構給出評級,買入評級25家,增持評級2家;過去90天內機構目標均價為62.6元。

數據來源:富途牛牛

結合近期市場動態及表現來看,保險業作為國家一直高度重視的產業,無論從政策端還是市場端,均傳遞出行業的復甦回暖趨勢。

一方面,客户需求增加,線下營銷活動增多,各大險企保費收入實現快速增長,市場回暖勢頭明顯。

數據顯示,2023年1月至5月,保險業累計實現原保費收入2.68萬億元,同比增長10.68%;5月單月壽險原保費收入1864億元,同比增長25.3%,主要上市險企壽險保費加速增長,中國平安以6.44%的增速領跑行業。

另一方面,過去數月,監管就人身險和專屬商業養老保險發佈的系列政策,為行業發展進一步釋放了積極信號。中國平安持續打造"保險+健康管理"、"保險+高端養老"及"保險+居家養老"三大產品服務線,有望進一步打開增長空間。

與此同時,隨着上市公司半年報披露即將開啟,多家券商及機構均表示看好港A兩市保險板塊的市場行情。

中信證券日前指出,2023年上半年市場表明,保險市場需求亮點在兩端,分別是高客需求和剛需消費。從高客需求角度看,大額儲蓄保單驅動景氣向上,對利率和價值率的擔憂已在估值中得到體現,彈性行情有望持續演繹,建議均衡配置保險指數或者低估值個股。

國聯證券同樣發佈研究報吿強調,保險板塊半年報業績有望超出市場預期,對股價構成有利刺激。當前板塊估值具備較高吸引力,後續隨着潛在的經濟刺激政策陸續出台以及經濟的內生性修復推動資產端環境迎來改善,疊加超預期的負債端表現,堅定看好保險板塊後續的投資機會。

總的來説,近兩年來,儘管在特殊時期、行業改革代理帶來的人力持續脱落等影響下,各大上市險企NBV增速、剩餘邊際下降,板塊深度回調至近十年來的較低水平,使市場對保險行業的未來增長前景產生了一定的擔憂。但長期來看,保險行業作為金融服務業的重要組成部分,具有穩定和可持續的收入來源,加上當前的險企的低估值現狀,以及各大險企市值管理和積極分紅策略,保險板塊仍具備充足的吸引力。

尤為值得一提的是,日前,標普全球首次發佈《可持續發展年鑑(中國版)2023》,中國平安獲評中國企業標普全球ESG評分最佳前1%,為中國(含港澳)保險公司最高評分,同時也是該區間段唯一上榜保險公司。在越來越多的投資者將ESG指標納入評估和投資策略的大環境下,中國平安的ESG治理工作取得優異表現,意味着未來將在資本市場中受到更多投資者的青睞。

整體而言,保險板塊在政策與市場的多重共振下具備估值修復的邏輯順暢。隨着壽險改革逐步顯效,投資者對於中國平安的信心也將不斷增強,後續表現值得期待。

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