惠譽博華:煤價跌勢未止 煤企利潤縮水
惠譽博華表示,執行近兩年的保供政策全面激發了中國煤炭的增產潛能。2022與2023年1至5月,中國分別實現原煤產量45億噸、19.1億噸,按年增長9%、4.8%。與此同時,在國際煤價斷崖式下行、進口零稅率、與重要貿易對手澳洲關係改善等因素共同推動下,2023年1至5月中國煤與褐煤進口量按年暴漲89.6%至1.8億噸,規模已達2022年度水平的62.1%。原煤的高負荷生產與超預期進口導致中國煤炭供給增勢迅猛,2023年以來(累計)增速維持約10%,這與宏觀經濟弱復甦下社會用電量增長乏力形成反差。煤炭總供給增速壓制火電發電量增長已近18個月之久,即使在來水明顯偏少、火電增發補缺的2023年1至5月,火電電量增長仍落後於煤炭供給,雖然其增速間差距有所收斂。
在經濟分化復甦情景下,保供增產積累的效果已使得中國煤炭基本面由短缺轉向過剩,這是2023年以來境內煤價發生趨勢性下行的根本原因。2023年6月上半月,秦皇島港山西產動力末煤(Q5500)港口平倉均價與榆林動力煤(Q5500)坑口均價分別報774元(下同)/噸、585元/噸,較1月可比期間均價各下跌35.2%、25.1%。惠譽博華認為,隨著入夏用電高峰來臨,電廠動力煤日耗將有所回升,但2023年中國煤價並未擺脫進一步走低之勢。一是下半年外貿出口形勢依然嚴峻,對出口佔比較高的沿海地區電廠煤耗形成挑戰,豐水期水電量觸底反彈、風電/光伏電量權重提高均將壓抑火電出力。二是產業鏈庫存高企制約煤價上行空間。截至2023年5月末,全國煤炭企業、CCTD主流港口、統調電廠煤炭庫存分別達7,000萬噸、7,600萬噸、16,500萬噸,按年增長27.3%、35.9%、3.8%,具備蓄水池作用的港口庫存迫近三年高位。三是大型煤企實際長協銷售比重多逾80%,煤價下行對其利潤影響相對溫和:2023年1至4月,中國煤炭開採與洗選業利潤總額按年回落14.6%,跌幅明顯低於煤價。與此同時,當前港口、坑口價仍高於國家發展與改革委於2022年2月制定的中長期交易價格合理區間上限,即秦港770元/噸、坑口(以陝西為例)520元/噸,煤企利潤空間依然豐盈。 2023年1至4月,中國煤炭開採與洗選業利潤總額高達2,954億元人民幣,顯著高於2020(614億元)、2021(1,140億元)年同期水平。煤企利潤雖有萎縮但仍處高位,暫無減產壓力與動機。這也是惠譽博華維持年初發布的《2023年煤炭開採行業信用展望》中關於「煤價中樞預期下行程度尚不足以改變我們對絕大多數煤企的信用觀點」論述的重要原因之一。
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