《大行報告》中金:本輪存款降息有望成為內銀繼續重估催化劑
五大內銀今起下調存款利率,活期存款利率降至0.2%。中金發表報告指,今次存款降息有望成為銀行繼續重估的催化劑。重申推薦低估值、高股息、經營穩健、業績存在改善空間的國有大行,包括郵儲銀行(01658.HK)、中國銀行(03988.HK)、農業銀行(01288.HK)等。
該行預計,後續中小銀行有望跟進同步下調。假設活期/兩年期/三年期/五年期定期存款利率分別下調5個基點/10個基點/15個基點/15個基點,估算能節約銀行負債成本約1,200億元,分別正向貢獻銀行淨息差/營收/淨利潤3個基點/1%/3%,其中活期存款佔比較高的國有大行和招商銀行(03968.HK)更為利好。
中金認為,今次減息後,未來1至2年存款平均利率仍有約20個基點的進一步降息空間,如果假設存款利率跟隨貸款利率調降,存款利率有望下調25個基點回到2017年水平。其中,定期存款和企業活期存款下調空間較大。在此假設下,不考慮存款活期化影響,估算能節約銀行負債成本約7,000億元,正向貢獻上市銀行淨息差/營收/淨利潤17個基點/8%/16%。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.