温氏股份(300498.SZ):相比非瘟前,現在豬週期判斷難度增大
格隆匯5月29日丨温氏股份(300498.SZ)近期組織多場路演活動,問答環節中,就“非洲豬瘟疫情發生後,豬週期預判難度是否增加?”,公司回覆稱,2018年非洲豬瘟疫情對我國養豬業造成了較大的影響,行業和豬週期均發生了較大的變化。相比非瘟前,現在豬週期判斷難度增大。
(1)供給端變化
①行業規模化、集中化提高
受非洲豬瘟疫情影響,行業產能被動去化,導致供需不匹配,進而造成2019年下半年到2021年上半年豬價長時間處於高位水平,持續的時間和高度遠遠超出了往期豬週期。當時生豬養殖行業利潤豐厚,吸引上下游和社會資本湧入,行業形勢發生較大變化。隨着產能逐步增加並釋放,目前行業規模化、集中化程度提高。據公司內部研究,2018年我國集團化大企業(指存欄1萬頭能繁母豬以上)的佔比約8%,2022年此比例已提升至39%左右。大企業資金實力雄厚,低迷豬價下,產能去化速度較慢。
②行業復產能力增強
經過幾年的努力和摸索,行業普遍建立起較為嚴密的生物安全防控體系。即使出現母豬損失,行業也可通過三系雜交、二元回交、肉轉種等多種方式快速補充母豬,行業復產能力增強,市場供給能夠快速補上。
③短期二次育肥投機增多
相比於非瘟前,現階段一體化養豬難度加大。部分市場參與者不養母豬,直接外購肉豬進行二次育肥,會階段性影響市場整體供給,加劇豬價波動。
(2)消費端變化
①居民肉類選擇多樣化
隨着居民生活水平提高,肉類消費結構悄然發生變化,肉類品類選擇呈現多元化,淡水魚、海鮮、牛肉、羊肉等肉類品類佔比提升。中長期來看,豬肉消費在總肉類消費佔比中呈現緩慢下降的趨勢。
以上僅為基於當前市場和行業情況進行的分析和梳理,僅供投資者參考。
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