美國經濟陷入衰退意味着什麼？華爾街多位分析師：美債收益率可能跌至2%
摩根大通資管等認爲，如果美國經濟的衰退比目前預期的更爲嚴重，10年期美債收益率可能會跌至2%的水平。“新債王”Gundlach本週表示，目前美國經濟衰退的可能性“相當高”。
華爾街策略分析師們認爲，伴隨着美國經濟走向衰退，美債的漲勢將加速。甚至有分析認爲，如果美國經濟的衰退比目前預期的更爲嚴重，到明年初，10年期美債收益率可能會跌至2%的水平。瑞穗銀行、摩根大通資產管理公司都作出了2%這一預判。
當前市場上的絕大多數分析師似乎都堅定地看好債券。美國經濟的衰退風險增加，或迫使美聯儲不得不採取更積極的行動來降息，是美債多頭的理由。
知名投資人“新債王”Gundlach本週表示，目前美國經濟衰退的可能性“相當高”。美國銀行業的動盪，加劇了交易員們對美聯儲將在今年晚些時候降息、以拯救陷入困境的經濟的押注。
當前，投資者在搶購美債。美國10年期國債收益率已從3月份的高點下跌約75個基點，位於3.33%的水平。如果美債收益率可以跌到上述2%的預測值，以週四的點位做多美債的投資者，可以獲取約13%的利潤。有基金經理直言，美債的任何拋售都應被視爲買入機會。
諸多業內人士認爲，債市的收益率將大概率強於股市。Gundlach最新表示，對美股感到擔憂，認爲標普500指數在區間交易持續一段時間後，以及難以突破4200-4300點關口，接下來將迎來下跌。
不過，市場也並非沒有空頭。美債空方認爲，如果美國的通脹高於預期，迫使美聯儲保持鷹派立場，那麼美債的多頭可能會感到失望。有分析預計，由於債券市場預計通脹下降的速度過快，因此當前非常接近美債收益率區間的底部，也即3.33%一線。即使區域銀行的情況出現惡化，美聯儲屆時的行動可能也無法與市場目前的定價相匹配。
本週三，美聯儲公佈FOMC決議，如期再加息25基點，暗示此後暫停行動。這一度令美股盤中上漲。但此後美聯儲主席鮑威爾表示，降低通脹還有很長的路要走，鑑於美聯儲認爲通脹需要一些時間才能下降，因此降息不合適。“如果通脹仍然偏高，我們不會降息。FOMC的通脹前景展望並不支持美聯儲降息。”美股隨後回落轉跌。
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