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《大行報告》瑞銀料壽險股本季新業務價值續強勁 首選中國平安(02318.HK)
瑞銀髮表研究報告指,壽險行業在今年第一季實現了強勁的新業務價值(NBV)增長。儘管代理人人數下降30%,但保險公司的新業務價值平均按年增長15%。該行認爲,代理生產力的提高、分銷渠道的多元化和對儲蓄產品的強勁需求是首季主要的增長動力。該行預計,行業將在第二季將保持增長勢頭,因爲大多數保險公司在降價前都在加大儲蓄產品的銷售力度。 該行將行業今年新業務價值增長預測平均上調13個百分點,認爲從長遠來看,行業新業務價值增長將更多地受到代理人生產力提高和產品差異化的推動,而不是員工人數的增加,而更早開始改革並擁有更高質量代理人的保險公司可能會表現更好。 報告補充,中國平安(02318.HK)仍然是該行的行業首選,相信其壽險改革初見成效,將有助於保持其長期競爭優勢。該行表示,隨着定價降息風險以及保險公司在第二季至第四季的產品重心從儲蓄轉向保障型,預計具有分銷渠道優勢和較少依賴定價產品的保險公司將跑贏大市。 該行提到,財險(02328.HK)的綜合成本率(COR)爲95.7%,按年增0.9個百分點,表明潛在的業務質量有所改善。該行預計市場份額擴大、業務組合改善和成本節約將幫助其在2023至25年保持約98%的良性COR和14至15%的股本回報率,又預期6月進一步放寬車險定價率不會對其產生重大影響,因爲其大部分車險的定價已經高於定價底線。
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