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美聯儲年內降息概率高達八成?貝萊德稱市場誤判

貝萊德表示,美聯儲將繼續加息,雖然交易員押注,在銀行業危機的疑慮擾亂市場下該央行不會加息。

這個全球最大的資金管理公司看好通貨膨脹掛鉤債券——在價格上漲時提供保護的證券——因其認爲,隨着經濟步入衰退,市場預期美國即將降息是錯誤的。貝萊德投資研究所包括Wei Li在內的策略師在客戶報告中寫道,這一次是不同的,因爲美聯儲及其同行已經明確表示,重創銀行業的麻煩不會讓它們停止抗擊通貨膨脹。

策略師們表示,他們預計美聯儲今年不會降息——這是央行在經濟衰退來襲時急於拯救經濟的老套路。

貝萊德的觀點與道明證券和DoubleLine Capital LP背道而馳,後二者認爲,隨着經濟衰退的風險增加,美聯儲卻誤認爲需要繼續提高利率。數家美國銀行和瑞士信貸集團本月倒閉,迫使全球重新思考貨幣政策的前景,同時引發美國國債收益率出現十多年來的最大波動。

由於銀行業危機蔓延的恐慌情緒有所緩解,美國2年期國債收益率——對央行政策變化最敏感的證券之一——週一從接近今年以來的最低水平躍升。雖然投資者已重新定價美聯儲5月加息25個基點的前景,但他們也押注市場尚未完全走出困境,美聯儲到年底可能會降息75個基點左右。

CME美聯儲觀察工具顯示,上週市場預期美聯儲在5月暫停加息的可能性曾一度高達超八成。

不過本週,隨着圍繞銀行業危機蔓延的不安情緒緩解,美國兩年期國債收益率本週一從接近今年最低的水平反彈。

市場本週大幅下調5月暫停加息的可能性
市場本週大幅下調5月暫停加息的可能性

CME美聯儲觀察工具也顯示,市場已經重新計入美聯儲5月升息25個基點的預期,對美聯儲5月暫停加息的押注已經降至51.3%,而加息25基點的可能性升至48.7%。

不過,市場仍然預計,隨着美國經濟在下半年面臨嚴峻衰退風險,美聯儲將不可避免地走上降息道路。CME美聯儲觀察工具還顯示,市場押注美聯儲在年底前降息的可能性高達約95%。

貝萊德策略師表示:“我們認爲,只有在出現更嚴重的信用緊縮並導致比我們預期更嚴重的衰退時,美聯儲纔會一如市場所反映地降息。”他們寫道,該公司在發達市場股票中保持低配,以反映其市場觀點。

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