《大行報告》中金:阿里(09988.HK)控股管理下各業務獨立運作 料估值體系將重塑
阿里巴巴(09988.HK)昨日(28日)宣布重組設六大部門。中金發表報告指,阿里除了淘寶天貓商業外,其他業務多數需要核心電商輸血,而業務繁多又導致決策鏈路長、靈活度不夠,本次調整旨在加強組織敏捷度,各家公司單獨計算薪酬、福利、預算和員工期權等,有利於激發各個業務部門的戰鬥力。
報告指,六大業務中的本地生活、國際數字商業、大文娛等,通過過去2年的努力,已經很大程度控制了虧損規模,也具備了更多自己為自己負責的能力;雲智能、菜鳥等業務較早具備了較強的獨立能力。中金認為這些業務有望快速適應組織結構變化,也具備形成新的超級平台公司的潛力;而「N」中一些細分領域的公司因為體量小且更靈活,反而有望率先走向IPO(新聞中提到盒馬與平頭哥)。
另外,報告指,各業務集團和業務公司董事會領導下的CEO負責制,雖然並不足以解決阿里在核心電商領域面臨的所有問題,但也有望減輕公司核心電商的負擔,使其可以更加專注在自身業務上。各業務集團獨立後,或將開啟單獨上市進程,有望重塑阿里估值體系。
報告指,阿里各項業務板塊分開看均為行業領先龍頭,但市場在給予集團估值時僅考慮中國商業和雲
計算業務。若假設未來各項業務板塊能夠釋放估值,樂觀情景下按照1(淘寶天貓商業)+6(阿里雲智能、本地生活、菜鳥、國際數字商業、大文娛、螞蟻集團)+N(盒馬等其他業務)的方式分部估值,集團化折讓30%,測算得到2024財年對應估值4,182億美元。
中金維持阿里美股和港股目標價140美元和137港元,評級「跑嬴行業」。
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