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“中特估值”體系下,國企估值有望迎來合理重估
uSMART盈立智投 03-10 15:48

國企在國民經濟中扮演重要作用,但估值仍然偏低。國有企業是國民經濟的壓艙石,在煤炭、公用事業、石油石化與建築裝飾等領域佔主導地位。但國有企業存在“價值實現與價值創造不匹配等問題”。截至2023年3月2日,國企與央企PETTM中位數分別爲18.25倍與25.81倍,顯著低於民營企業30.81倍的PE水平。

國企的定價偏低主要來自幾個痛點:

1)國企主要分佈在傳統上中遊行業,且有一定的行政壁壘,成長性略低;

2)規模大,負債高,公司所有者機制與治理機制不夠市場化,導致經營與管理效率偏低;

3)國有經濟承擔“國家使命”,與以創造盈利爲核心任務的民企價值觀有差異,市場對國有企業改革的認知不夠充分;

4)國企有比較好的資源整合優勢,但當前創新發展能力不強。

2023 年是貫徹二十大精神和國企改革三年行動方案收官後的首年,新一輪國企改革行動正在謀劃中。“1+N”政策體系與國企改革三年行動背景下國企全面深化改革已經鋪開,中國式現代化背景下高質量發展是首要任務,國有企業作爲“大國重器”任務艱鉅。二十大報告已經提出了“完善中國特色現代企業制度”重點改革方向以及“加快建設世界一流企業”的目標;新一輪國企改革任務重點在於提高國有企業核心競爭力和增強核心功能,抓手還是在於通過創新與整合完成提質增效。

建立中國特色估值體系,國企估值有望迎來合理重估。證監會主席易會滿在2022年11月21日的金融街論壇上表示“要探索建立具有中國特色的估值體系”。估值高低直接體現市場對上市公司的認可程度,一方面在於“練好內功”,加強專業化戰略性整合,提升核心競爭力;另一方面要進一步強化公衆公司意識。歷史上國企改革政策有比較強的連貫性,下一階段國企改革政策的內涵在於通過做大做強做優國有資本,提高國有企業內生價值從而實現國有企業估值重塑,這對資本市場中的國企與央企上市公司具有積極意義。

結合政策方向來看,未來的國企價值擡升與結構性投資機會將主要圍繞以下幾個方向:

1)資源整合型:關注央企戰略性重組和專業化整合;以及存在資產注入或重組預期的板塊和標的。

2)科創領頭型:“卡脖子”關鍵核心技術領域/戰略新興產業,或符合國家安全背景的“鏈主”企業。

3)價值重估型:估值明顯偏低的板塊、以及從財務視角看具備“核心競爭力”的優質板塊和標的。

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