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大摩空頭:美股已經進入“死亡區”
uSMART盈立智投 02-20 17:28

美股風險溢價已下降到極端水平。

流動性陰影籠罩美股,大摩警告投資者不可忽略風險。

上週,押注美股下跌的摩根士丹利首席美股策略師Mike Wilson發表了一篇文章,提醒投資者不能爲眼前的反彈所迷惑,熊市還未結束。

在這篇文章中,Mike Wilson將投資者在股市中的行爲類比爲攀登珠峯——儘管登頂珠峯能爲登山者帶來極高的榮譽,但在山頂下有一片聞名的死亡區,那裏氧氣壓力不足以維持長期生命,最終導致了許多登山者的隕落——股市中也是如此:

由於流動性(瓶裝氧氣)允許投資者進入一個他們知道不應該進入、也活不了多久的領域,投資者要麼是自願的,要麼是不得已的,再次跟隨股價升至令人眼花繚亂的高度。

他們攀爬是出於貪婪,追求最終的頂峯,以爲自己能在下降時不產生災難性的後果。但氧氣最終會耗盡,那些忽視風險的人會受傷。

目前美股市盈率爲18.6倍,而風險溢價(ERP)僅有155個基點,Wilson表示,在2009年開始的整個流動性驅動的長期牛市中,現在正處於“氧氣”最稀薄的時期。

他指出,始於去年10月份的合理價格和低預期的熊市反彈,已經演變成基於美聯儲暫停/轉向的投機狂潮,但這一事件最終能夠被證明並沒有到來。

與此同時,隨着通脹回升,美聯儲暫停加息的可能性逐漸減退,取而代之的是進一步加息反映在市場預期中,最終利率將達到5.25%。

儘管經濟形勢似乎略有改善,但基於美國經濟的負經營槓桿情景,盈利衰退還有很長一段路要走。

在美聯儲收緊政策的同時,由於其他央行提供的流動性,金融狀況正在繼續放鬆。自去年10月以來,全球M2增長了驚人的6萬億美元,爲投資者提供了在“死亡區”生存所需的補充“氧氣”。

Wilson說,雖然這種“氧氣供應”可以持續更長時間,幫助“登山者”走得比他們應該走的更遠,但它也會讓他們誤以爲自己比實際更安全,從而導致他們受傷:

美股最近一次上漲始於去年10月,起點爲15倍市盈率,ERP也有270基點,是一個“安全得多”的地方。

然而,到了12月,隨着市盈率回到18倍,ERP下降到225bp,“空氣”又開始變得稀薄。

隨着新年的到來,倖存的登山者決定再次嘗試登頂,這一次他們選擇了一條更加危險的路線,由最投機的股票領頭。

新的說法是,美聯儲最終將在2月1日的會議上暫停加息,甚至在今年下半年開始降息。這就像一針氧氣,突然間,投資者開始更快、更積極地行動,更有信心地談論美國經濟將實現軟着陸。

隨着它們達到更高的水平,現在甚至出現了一種“不着陸”的說法——當一個人瀕死時,他開始看到並相信不存在的東西。

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