港股上漲行情尚未結束,快速修復後逐步轉向結構性機會
來源:智通財經
中金髮布研究報告稱,港股市場短期或維持盤整以消化已經計入的預期,並等待新的催化劑的到來。該行認爲市場上漲行情尚未結束,基準情形下更多類似2019年,即盈利溫和增長(6%-10%)推動下,市場在快速修復後逐步轉向結構性機會。在配置策略上,除了受益於利好政策的消費和地產外,該行建議投資者關注預期反轉修復的互聯網和醫療保健,以及高景氣的科技軟硬件等三個方向。
報告提到,受美國通脹仍高於預期但經濟數據保持強勁,以及地緣政治不確定性升溫等不利因素影響壓抑風險偏好,海外中資股市場上週進一步走低,已經連續三週收跌。此前市場估值已幾乎修復回升至長期歷史均值水平,市場可能出現一定獲利回吐並在短期內呈現盤整態勢,但是近期回調顯然不是此輪上漲行情的終點。考慮到此前一輪反彈中很多投資者的參與度並不高,因此該行認爲近期市場盤整或將提供更好的再佈局機會,但該行建議投資者短期仍可以保持耐心,略等待更好窗口。
一方面,此輪上漲行情相對於實際經濟復甦情況是有所搶跑的,並且已經計入了過多的復甦預期。另一方面,在美聯儲加息路徑等外部不確定性和國內政策支持前景仍不明朗的共同作用下,市場短期也可能維持觀望態勢,需要等待更多正面催化劑。其中,海外方面由於美聯儲遏制通脹的“鷹派”立場可能維持,外圍市場波動性將有所上升。而國內方面即將召開的兩會和有望到來的利好政策成爲市場關注的焦點。
該行認爲市場短期或維持盤整以消化已經計入的預期,並等待新的催化劑的到來。該行認爲市場上漲行情尚未結束,基準情形下更多類似2019年,即盈利溫和增長(6%-10%)推動下,市場在快速修復後逐步轉向結構性機會。在配置策略上,除了受益於利好政策的消費和地產外,該行建議投資者關注預期反轉修復的互聯網和醫療保健,以及高景氣的科技軟硬件等三個方向。
整體來看,該行認爲市場繼續在波折中上行,國內經濟增長政策變化以及美聯儲政策路徑值得關注。配置策略上,該行建議投資者更加關注優質成長(低PEG),如政策優化下的消費和地產、預期反轉修復的互聯網和醫療保健、高景氣的科技製造等三個方向。該行建議超配部分信息科技(軟件與半導體)、媒體娛樂、可選消費與服務、以及部分醫療保健和房地產;對原材料、工業、交運、公用事業等維持偏謹慎看法。
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