中金：美國經濟到底還衰不衰退？
來源：Kevin策略研究
美國經濟是否會“軟着陸（soft landing）”的討論言猶在耳，近期“不衰退（no landing）”的聲音也逐漸增多，一個需要回答的關鍵問題是，近期美國經濟的改善是否只是短暫的“曇花一現”、還是不改衰退方向下的路徑延後、又或甚至是重新加速的趨勢徹底逆轉？
一、發生了什麼？多個維度數據顯示美國經濟1月份出現改善跡象
近期美國一系列數據好於預期，這其中既有服務業PMI、消費者信心指數、地產景氣度等調查口徑的“軟數據”（soft data），也有更爲重要的CPI、零售銷售等“硬數據”（hard data），甚至連已經持續走弱較久部分房地產和工業產出數據也有改善跡象。
二、爲什麼？季節性與偶發因素、統計及權重調整、結構性錯位；但更重要的是金融條件的改善
除季節與偶發因素、統計及權重調整以及結構性錯位等不可重複的原因外，更重要的原因可能是去年底以來市場自發交易的金融條件大幅轉鬆。通脹拐點和美聯儲加息放緩都使市場預期“搶跑”，使此前已超過投資回報率的融資成本又再度回落。
三、對於未來增長的含義？延後衰退到來，但非改變趨勢
開年修復已經成爲事實，這在一定程度上也會延後二季度衰退壓力，但據此判斷美國經濟徹底擺脫下行趨勢甚至再度加速可能還爲時尚早。原因在於：一方面，美聯儲在當前通脹水平可能不得不進行“過程管理”敲打市場，預期轉鷹或加息延後都會通過推高金融條件和融資成本再度抑制需求；另一方面，一些結構性的錯位可能也會使得增長趨弱的大方向難以短期逆轉，如低收入人羣的低儲蓄。
四、政策及資產含義？加息終點或被延後，部分資產依然“搶跑”
加息終點：我們測算加息終點有可能從5%擡升至5.3%左右，也即3月後還有兩次25bp加息
資產預期：部分資產已逐步向更新的加息路徑靠攏，如美債和美元；但其他資產仍計入較多降息預期，如美股和黃金。1）美債：在當前加息終點5.25%~5.5%下，長端美債合理區間爲3.7~3.9%；2）美元：短期或維持強勢，103後看106；3）美股：估值計入預期較多，維持“欲揚先抑”判斷；4）黃金：短期仍有壓力，下一契機來自衰退壓力的到來。
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