招商证券:倘日本退出QQE将冲击股汇债市 美汇明年看跌 看好中国在岸及离岸股票
日本央行昨日(20日)宣布维持指标利率不变,惟出乎预期宣布放宽10年期日债孳息率曲线控制,被市场解读为货币政策「转鹰」。招商证券发表报告,指此举可被解读为改变货币政策走向的早期信号;倘日本央行退出量宽,将对各类资产有广泛而重要的影响。
报告质疑单靠货币政策是否足以扭转日本近三十年的经济下行。疫情带来周期性下行,但日本经济深层次问题属结构性。1990年代经济泡沫爆破的后遗性仍未完全解决。其支柱行业面对全球竞争动能的快速改变,而不利的人口结构亦对劳工成本及人材群构成挑战。
招商证券表示,倘日本央行退出十年来的QQE(超级量宽),并控制收益率曲线,走向量化紧缩,对全球股市的潜在影响重大。因日圆兑美元将升值,圆汇走高将吸引资金回流日本。另边厢,借贷成本上升将不利股市,特别是成长股。日经指数年内累跌约7.7%,现估值相当于预测市盈率14.7倍,低出历史中位数的17.2倍。
另由于日本是美国国债的重要投资者及在法国、英国及澳洲持有大量资产,倘日本收紧币策,将对全球债券市场带来广泛干扰。
招商证券称,美汇指数(DXY)或进一步下跌;在过去三个月大跌5.6%后,其本年至今累升近8%。随著美联储本月放慢加息幅度,该行料美汇指数明年转弱。由于圆汇对美汇指数比重达14%,日本央行此举将加快美汇走低。
该行回归分析显示,美汇指数与MSCI新兴市场指数具有强劲负关联度(负0.6),在美汇上升时,MSCI新兴市场指数跑输成熟市场指数。本年至今,恒指、MSCI中国指数及沪深300指数累跌18.4%、24.6%及22.5%,中国股票在10月被广泛抛售。即使近期股市强劲回升,该等指数仍低出历史中位数介乎10%至13%。该行相信现时中国离岸及在岸股票风险回报吸引,对明年展望持正面看法。
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