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招商證券:倘日本退出QQE將衝擊股匯債市 美匯明年看跌 看好中國在岸及離岸股票
日本央行昨日(20日)宣布維持指標利率不變,惟出乎預期宣布放寬10年期日債孳息率曲線控制,被市場解讀為貨幣政策「轉鷹」。招商證券發表報告,指此舉可被解讀為改變貨幣政策走向的早期信號;倘日本央行退出量寬,將對各類資產有廣泛而重要的影響。 報告質疑單靠貨幣政策是否足以扭轉日本近三十年的經濟下行。疫情帶來周期性下行,但日本經濟深層次問題屬結構性。1990年代經濟泡沫爆破的後遺性仍未完全解決。其支柱行業面對全球競爭動能的快速改變,而不利的人口結構亦對勞工成本及人材群構成挑戰。 招商證券表示,倘日本央行退出十年來的QQE(超級量寬),並控制收益率曲線,走向量化緊縮,對全球股市的潛在影響重大。因日圓兌美元將升值,圓匯走高將吸引資金回流日本。另邊廂,借貸成本上升將不利股市,特別是成長股。日經指數年內累跌約7.7%,現估值相當於預測市盈率14.7倍,低出歷史中位數的17.2倍。 另由於日本是美國國債的重要投資者及在法國、英國及澳洲持有大量資產,倘日本收緊幣策,將對全球債券市場帶來廣泛干擾。 招商證券稱,美匯指數(DXY)或進一步下跌;在過去三個月大跌5.6%後,其本年至今累升近8%。隨著美聯儲本月放慢加息幅度,該行料美匯指數明年轉弱。由於圓匯對美匯指數比重達14%,日本央行此舉將加快美匯走低。 該行迴歸分析顯示,美匯指數與MSCI新興市場指數具有強勁負關聯度(負0.6),在美匯上升時,MSCI新興市場指數跑輸成熟市場指數。本年至今,恆指、MSCI中國指數及滬深300指數累跌18.4%、24.6%及22.5%,中國股票在10月被廣泛拋售。即使近期股市強勁回升,該等指數仍低出歷史中位數介乎10%至13%。該行相信現時中國離岸及在岸股票風險回報吸引,對明年展望持正面看法。
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