外資看中國 | 不問過程直奔結果，清零終結意味着中資股仍有反彈空間
投資者對中資股的快速反彈仍有空間越發樂觀，押注新冠清零時代已經終結。
來源 | 彭博
自10月31日創下10年低點以來，MSCI中國指數11月份創下1999年以來單月最佳表現，到上週五收盤漲幅已達38%。畫風突變，在香港，恆生指數多達96%的成份股上週都在50日移動均線之上，爲2020年1月以來的最高比例，而10月份時一度爲0%。
股市迅猛上漲主要建立在中國正邁向經濟的全面重啓，開弓沒有回頭箭這樣一種信念之上。儘管病例激增，中國上週仍放寬了清零政策中的一些主要限制，其中包括允許部分感染者居家隔離，而非送往集中隔離設施。
“ 市場關注的關鍵因素之一是清零，這事真的結束了，”Federated Hermes 亞洲（除日本外）首席投資組合經理Jonathan Pines表示，“我們確實認爲從現在開始將繼續上漲。這確實感覺是真的。”
儘管中國意外快速放鬆防疫規定帶來公共衛生風險，但投資者願意忽略所有的成本和複雜性，至少暫時如此。他們認爲，通往經濟全面重啓的道路崎嶇不平但已確定，並表示中國不太可能再讓病毒傳播後回到封控。他們還淡化公司短期內可能面臨的盈利風險。
市場“正在跳過整個過程，這也許是中國將經歷的艱難歷程，而只關注最終結果，”Federated Hermes的Pines表示。中國可能很快將面臨感染率飆升等沉重的公共衛生負擔，但“這並不意味着股市必然會回落，”他說，只要中國繼續邁向全面重開。
“儘管公司會面臨一或兩個季度的波動，也許業績不佳，但事實在於，從一年的時間維度來看，你實際上可以更清楚地看到，情況可能幾乎會迴歸正常，”Abrdn全球新興市場股票投資總監Adam Montanaro表示
而且即使經歷了近期的上漲之後，中資股估值依然有優勢。MSCI中國指數的預期市盈率約爲11倍，高於近期8.2 倍的低點，但仍低於五年均值12.5倍和年初時的約12倍。
美國銀行的中國股票研究聯席主管Winnie Wu表示，市場尚未反映全面重開，估值倍數仍有提升空間。“本輪上漲仍有空間，因爲最佳時刻尚未到來，”她在書面回覆中表示。
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