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瑞銀汪濤:中國出口進一步走弱 料人民幣匯率將在明年下半年升值
阿思達克 12-08 11:06
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,儘管去年同期基數較低,11月出口按年跌幅從10月的0.3%進一步擴大至8.7%,大幅低於市場預期。進口按年下降10.6%,部分由於基數效應,也明顯弱於10月,而市場預期按年下跌5%。11月貿易順差從10月的852億美元小幅收窄至698億美元。 她指,鑒於科技行業處於下行週期,積體電路出口價格和手機出口價格均走弱約30個百分點,拖累整體出口價格下降。剔除價格影響,瑞銀估計11月實際出口量按年跌幅從10月的7.2%小幅擴大至8.4%,遠低於名義增速走弱幅度。實際進口量按年下跌8.9%,同樣優於名義按年跌幅。 汪濤補充,考慮到未來幾個月出口增速可能持續走弱,認為科技零部件相關產品的進口也將有所承壓。另一方面,大宗商品進口表現不一。她指,外需增速正在逐漸體現發達市場經濟增長壓力、高庫存、科技行業下行週期等方面的下行壓力,料未來幾個月到明年上半年出口可能進一步下跌。之後,隨著科技行業下行週期見底,再加上基數降低,將有助於提振出口按年增速。 瑞銀仍然認為美元在明年初有可能走強、且可能有一定波動,意味著屆時人民幣匯率可能會走弱。在此之後,雖然明年中國出口可能會較今年大幅走弱,但鑒於大宗商品價格可能回落、且內地大宗商品密集的行業可能仍然較為乏力,明年進口增速也可能放緩而貿易順差將大致持穩。 此外,考慮到美聯儲預計在明年下半年開始降息,以及隨著中國經濟重啟和持續復甦,預計市場情緒將推動明年下半年人民幣兌美元升值。考慮到市場發展,將今年底美元兌人民幣的預測從此前的7.25調整至7.0,將明年底美元兌人民幣的預測從此前的7.1調整至6.8。
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