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《大行報告》美銀證券:中國宏觀經濟週期性復甦 內銀H股目標價平均上調3%
美銀證券發表報告指出,主要內銀雖然面對信貸需求疲弱、毛利下跌及房地產市場不利因素,但今年首九個月仍實現穩定的交易量增長、資產質量穩健,以及盈利增長。隨著中國逐步重新開放,其經濟和股市應會在2023年出現週期性復甦,預期內銀股將受惠於信貸需求轉強、市場利率更高及房地產市場復甦。 該行認為,內銀股目前估值偏低,相當於市盈率4倍及股息率9%,當市場對內地信心增強時,相信內銀股應有很大的重評空間。然而,當內地市場反彈,該行料內銀板塊表現或未能跑贏大市或非銀行的金融板塊。 此外,美銀證券維持對內銀股2022至2024財年的盈利預測不變,料內銀股2022至2023財年盈利增長穩健,估計今年純利平均按年升7%,略低於上半年及首九個月的8%至9%。明年純利增長應與今年相若,料內銀明年毛利持續按年下跌,不良貸款率或更高(尤其是房產相關行業),但隨著經濟及企業盈利改善,預期信貸風險可控。另對內銀H股目標價平均上調3%(見另表)。(jlw)~
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