高盛和德銀敲響警鐘
高盛和德意志銀行的策略師表示，明年美股將出現劇烈波動，因爲它還沒有反映出美國經濟衰退的風險。Christian Mueller-Glissmann和 Cecilia Mariotti 等高盛策略師表示，模型顯示，未來12個月美國經濟增長放緩的概率爲39%，但風險資產定價僅反映了11%的概率。他們表示:“這增加了明年出現進一步衰退恐慌的風險。”與此同時，德意志銀行策略師Binky Chadha預計，隨着經濟開始衰退，標普500指數將在明年第三季度跌至3250點，比當前水平低19%，然後在第四季度反彈。
他們的呼籲爲投資者敲響警鐘。由於市場押注美聯儲政策在通脹見頂後轉向，美股在過去兩個月大幅上漲。高盛策略師表示，雖然明年貨幣政策的阻力應該會減弱，但全球增長放緩將使股市承壓。
高盛策略師寫道:”考慮到衰退風險升高和增長/通脹組合的不確定性，股票風險溢價似乎很低。”在增長疲軟和波動加劇的情況下，加上高估值，股票回撤風險較高。標普500指數的遠期市盈率爲17.5倍，高於15.7倍的20年平均水平。
高盛的分析顯示，如果經濟衰退得以避免，一旦通脹見頂，股市往往會反彈。然而，在出現經濟收縮的情況下，股市在通脹見頂後的6到9個月內平均再下降10%。儘管他們認爲美國衰退風險相對較低，但對金融穩定以及市場壓力指標(如流動性風險和償付能力風險)的擔憂在各個資產類別中都有所增加。
總體而言，高盛策略師更喜歡債券，而不是股票，稱債券提供了更好的風險/回報，並且在2023年晚些時候與股票的正相關性應該會降低。
高盛策略師上週估計，標普500指數將在2023年底收於4000點，與上週五收盤時幾乎持平。他們週一表示，預計明年美股的波動性加劇，下半年將出現復甦。德意志銀行也預測，該指數將在明年第四季度反彈，年底收於4500點。
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