通脹褪去滯脹又起？美銀基金經理調查：預計美聯儲不會很快轉向
正如高盛強調2023年美國通脹將快速下行，美國銀行對基金經理的最新調查也顯示，受訪者預計全球通脹將於明年開始降溫。但是他們並不認爲美聯儲會跟隨通脹緩解同步降息，並且對滯脹的擔憂已經涌上心頭。
此次調查在11月4日—11月10日進行，受訪者爲272名基金經理，總資產管理規模達到7900億美元。
美銀策略師Michael Hartnett在週二報告中寫道，調查結果顯示，85%的受訪者認爲全球通脹將在未來12個月出現下降，這一比例創下歷史新高。然而更有92%的受訪者心憂滯脹，即經濟增長繼續放緩，但通脹率仍將高於平均水平，如今這種觀點已經成爲“壓倒性共識”。
調查結果還顯示，多數投資者認爲，只有當美聯儲首選的通脹指標—核心PCE物價指數降至4%以下時，美聯儲纔會停止加息步伐，而9月核心PCE仍同比增加5.15%。
此前由於市場預計通脹緩解將促使美聯儲停止激進加息，所以助力全球股市在上月跌至兩年低點後“觸底反彈”。但對此部分策略師已經警告稱，這樣的討論“爲時過早”，因爲美聯儲官員已經暗示，在通脹出現明顯降溫之前，仍有進一步加息的空間。
並且鑑於市場情緒依舊“極度悲觀”，投資者對衰退的預期處於2020年4月以來的最高點，Hartnett認爲應在標普500指數漲超4100點時將其賣出（較昨日收盤價高出近3%）。調查結果還顯示，受悲觀預期的影響，基金經理大多增持現金，減持股票。
調查結果亮點：
1. 投資者認爲，通脹持續高企、地緣形勢惡化、央行態度強硬、全球深度衰退和系統性信貸風險事件是最大的尾部風險。
2. 自該調查啓動以來投資者首次預計，美債收益率將在未來12個月下降。
3. 最擁擠的熱門交易：做多美元、石油、ESG資產和美債，做空歐股。
4. 投資者對科技股的減持創下2006年8月以來最高，並連續第18個月增持能源股。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
