《大行報告》美銀證券:民營內房前景仍然不明朗 物管股或更吸引
美銀證券發表報告指,內地推「16條」措施支持房地產市場,支持該行對內房行業的積極看法。與以往零散的政策不同,今次是整體性措施,通過支持內房開發商的銷售和資金渠道,幫助它們解決流動性問題。同時亦就放鬆對房地產行業的緊縮政策立場,釋出一個明確的信號。
考慮到有更多的跡象顯示內地政府可能準備調整防疫政策,美銀證券認為內房業有多種有利因素,包括房地產銷售復甦速度超預期和違約風險受控等。
該行預計,無違約問題的開發商將成為進一步放鬆政策的主要受惠者。整體而言,看好國企開發商中的華潤置地(01109.HK)和中海外(00688.HK),以及私營開發商中的龍湖(00960.HK)。另由於盈利前景不佳,繼續看淡金茂(00817.HK)。
報告認為,上周私營內房開發商股價急升已經部分反映違約風險降低。但大部份私營開發商的增長前景仍然不明朗,因為它們基本上已經停止買地,亦都無可觀的投資物業,因此認為投資物管股或更具吸引力。
另外,該行提到,7月至10月的內房銷售情況顯示,明年的新房銷售量將按年下降5至10%,而二手房市場的平均銷售價格下降速度最近似乎有所加快。
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