《大行報告》瑞銀料蒙牛(02319.HK)盈利增長加速推動估值重評
瑞銀發表研究報告,預計若中國疫情影響較溫和,內地乳業需求增長將加速,以及供應增長有限下行業競爭緩解,相信蒙牛(02319.HK)和伊利(600887.SH)營業利潤率將顯著提升,於後疫情時代盈利復甦將推動行業估值重估,維持對蒙牛及伊利的「買入」評級。
該行指出,消費者對增加蛋白質攝入來增強免疫力的意識不斷提高,預期乳製品消費量將在後疫情時代增加,同時隨著社會流動狀況改善,送禮的需求也可能會恢復,將推動優質超高溫(UHT)產品銷量加速增長。
瑞銀又指,疫情增量需求可能導致UHT牛奶供應不足,令減價促銷活動減少,推動乳製品公司毛利率提升及營銷費用比率下降,預計蒙牛和伊利的估值水平將從目前的低位回升到20至25倍的歷史平均水平。
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