《大行報告》富瑞下調恆生(00011.HK)及東亞(00023.HK)目標價 首選中銀(02388.HK)
富瑞發表研究報告指,上周與新加坡投資者會面,知悉投資者關注本港的對沖交易和何時復常通關,如他們回歸香港市場將使有穩固盈利支持的公司受惠。該行對中銀香港(02388.HK)、本港地產商、及中國的人壽公司更感興趣。
該行表示,在香港的銀行中,中銀香港(02388.HK)強勁的業績受到新加坡投資者的關注,由於宏觀風險和中國信貸問題,很多投資者此前對香港或內地金融持懷疑態度。部分投資者認為,鑑於新加坡銀行的盈利似乎見頂,且市盈率明顯更高,因此或會投資中銀香港,但亦有投資者繼續看好受內地信貸影響較小的新加坡銀行。該行首選中銀香港,維持「買入」評級及目標價35元,另將恆生(00011.HK)及東亞(00023.HK)目標價分別下調4%及8%,至125元及11元。
在地產股方面,該行指出,一些投資者認為,近期九龍倉置業(01997.HK)的股價回調為他們提供了一個更合理的切入點,不過,長遠來看,低股息收益率可能會限制上行空間,即使本港重新通關,基本面仍需要時間來恢復。該行指,領展房託(00823.HK)最近的降級主要是反映更高的利率,在通關後,盈利上升空間相對較少。領展過去的表現優於SG REIT(新加坡REITs房地產信託基金),因為增長是由有機租金恢復推動的,而SG REIT更注重資產增長,現在領展也變得更加以資產為導向,吸引力可能會減弱。
該行亦提到,恆隆(00101.HK)近期的疲弱令許多投資者感到意外,相信是由於潛在的政策逆風、宏觀不確定因素及重新開放的期望,令市場對內地奢侈品需求有所憂慮。該股目前的股息收益率為7%,僅略高於以香港為重點的地產商。
在發展商方面,新加坡的大部分投資者更看好新地(00016.HK),而太古地產(01972.HK)持續以每股派息以中單位數增長,亦可能帶來積極作用;另外,由於高負債比率和100%以上的派息率,部分投資者質疑新世界發展(00017.HK)的股息可持續性。該行認為,集團會首先通過放緩土地收購和加速出售來保留現金,但不能排除其未來適量削減股息的可能性。
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