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《大行報告》花旗:港銀看好中銀 料匯控具上行空間 料定期存款轉換達拐點後將更積極地加P
港銀股今早(7日)造好,匯豐控股(00005.HK)股價抽高近5.2%報43.6元,中銀(02388.HK)揚近2.8%。花旗發表本港銀行業報告表示,於港銀公布今年第三季業績後召開了投資者會議,港銀季績顯示告淨息差擴張強勁,但亦面臨活期及儲蓄存款(CASA)遷移、以及存款競爭加劇和優惠利率上調,而匯控及渣打(02888.HK)需為中國商業房地產作額外撥備,中銀則看到撥備回撥。而港銀指引均指2023財年信貸成本將適度增加。 該行看好香港銀行股在2023財年的盈利增長,看好中銀香港的韌性(予「買入」評級及目標價30.5元),並看到匯控股價具顯著上行空間(予「買入」評級及目標價52.8元),並指渣打展開回購可提供支持(予「中性」評級及目標價56.4元)。 花旗表示,港銀上季淨息差闊強勁,於今年第三季香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)及倫敦同業拆放利率(LIBOR)分別上升133及148個基點,中銀香港引領香港銀行的淨息差擴張,基礎淨息差按季擴闊35個基點至1.54%,匯控淨息差按季擴闊22個基點至1.57%,渣打淨息差僅按季擴闊8個基點,是由於對沖拖累了11個基點,擴闊水平低於同業。 展望未來,今年第四季的平均100萬元的HIBOR及LIBOR按季上升115及103個基點,這可能推動淨息差進一步上漲。然而,香港明顯的活期及儲蓄存款(CASA)遷移和競爭意味著港銀較低的淨息差敏感性。而匯控管理保守認為,香港淨息差可在今年四季度見頂。 花旗表示,香港銀行上周布將最優惠利率和儲蓄利率上調25個基點,根據該行估計,對於儲蓄存款餘額較高的銀行,最優惠利率每上調25個基點可能導致淨息差收縮1至4個基點。然而,隨著更多儲蓄存款逐漸轉為定期存款,料港銀可能會開始從較高的優惠利率中受益,因此在達到拐點後可能會更積極地加息。 該行引述匯控管理層指2022年淨利息收入指引為320億美元,這意味著今年第四季淨利息收入指引為90億美元,而20223淨利息收入修訂為360億美元,其中包括12億美元的外匯影響和13億美元的交易賬簿融資成本增加,料這完全被更高的交易收入所抵銷。 該行引述渣打管理層指維持今年淨息差指引1.4%,並將其2023財年淨息差指引上調至1.65%。
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