《大行報告》中金升騰訊(00700.HK)評級至「跑贏行業」 目標價維持328元
中金髮表報告,認爲面對市場的擔憂,騰訊(00700.HK)用微信/QQ的社交網絡形成了人與人的連接,並不斷尋找適合社交網絡的商業模式,而這些模式是否成功取決於與社交網絡形成了何種程度的配合。考慮到騰訊的價值增量在於每股盈利大於利潤大於收入增速,故上調至「跑贏行業」評級。
報告指,騰訊基本面依舊穩固。今年來微信時長佔比已趨於穩定,且最近幾個月微信時長增速超越線上平臺時長的大盤。其增長模式亦並未動搖,但短期可見度下降。展望未來,除了長期視頻號帶來200億元人民幣(下同)和小程序帶來159億元收入增量外,其他增量並不明朗。海外遊戲、企業服務等具備邏輯上的可能,但都需要更多時間。因此,對騰訊收入短期的恢復性增長不應有太高期望,以當前的財務報表線性外推的結果是悲觀的,但站在騰訊過往20年的分析框架上得出的結論是長期樂觀。而相比收入,公司利潤改善趨勢更爲確定。
該行認爲騰訊有望走出一個收入緩慢增長(10%)、利潤較快增長(19%)、每股盈利更快增長(多於19%)的範式。潛在催化劑包括在降本增效的基礎上,公司還有穩定現金流,以及規模可觀的投資組合,公司正通過回購、分紅等形式對抗高利率環境,與股東共渡難關。相信公司回購或分紅的策略會助力股東價值得以更好釋放。
由於存在疫情、宏觀環境擾動的可能,該行將明年收入預期下調2%至6,056億元,但由於降本增效效果持續顯現,故基本維持明年經調整淨利潤預期。維持目標價328港元。
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