國君策略：產業進入躍升期，虛擬現實賦能數字經濟
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國君策略方奕，作者：方奕、蘇徽、唐文卿
重磅政策發佈，虛擬現實產業發展進入戰略窗口期。《虛擬現實與行業應用融合發展行動計劃（2022—2026年）》發佈，虛擬現實產業進入產品升級和融合應用大發展的窗口期。計劃提出2026年我國虛擬現實產業總規模達3500億元，終端銷售超2500萬台，培育100家骨幹企業等目標，推進近眼顯示、渲染處理、感知交互、網絡傳輸、內容生產等關鍵技術融合創新，對關鍵器件、終端外設、運營平台、生產工具等環節的發展也提出具體要求。“虛擬現實＋”有望成為新一輪賦能多產業數字化轉型的強勁動力，將在工業生產、文化旅遊、融合媒體、教育培訓、體育健康等領域實現規模化應用。
虛擬現實設備進入產品升級2.0階段，新技術應用和爆款產品驅動需求放量。參照iPhone手機的產品迭代路徑和銷量趨勢，虛擬現實設備已進入產品升級和銷量大增的2.0時代。隨着Pancake光學方案、Mico Led等技術在頭顯設備中的應用，設備佩戴舒適度、視聽效果、交互體驗等用户痛點問題均有大幅改善，Pico 4、Quest Pro、PS VR 2，以及明年發佈的蘋果MR設備有望帶動虛擬現實硬件產品進入需求放量的1-100階段。IDC預測，2022年我國VR出貨有望超300萬台，2025年有望超千萬台，五年複合投資增速43.8%。根據Wellsenn XR數據，佔據全球9成市場份額的Meta 22H1出貨量增長26.1%至415萬台，全年出貨量有望增長28%至1115萬台；國內龍頭PICO 22年出貨量有望同比增長超6倍至113萬台，帶動國內頭顯設備放量。
多產業融合應用，虛擬現實成為數字經濟發展的重要驅動力。虛擬現實是數字經濟的重大前瞻領域，已形成以技術創新為基礎的產業體系，多產業融合應用將是接下來的發展重點，虛擬現實將在經濟社會重要行業領域實現規模化應用。虛擬現實產業的發展除了硬件創新外，應用場景和內容的豐富更為重要，除遊戲娛樂外，工業企業的數字化智能化轉型、文化旅遊場所沉浸式體驗設施、仿真實驗教學、大眾健身、安全應急演練、殘障輔助、城市可視化管理等領域也將實現虛擬現實的融合應用。場景的豐富需要虛擬現實內容生態的多元化發展，2021年我國線上健身MAU數已達1.38億人，健身、直播等應用產品快速放量，其他領域的場景應用和內容創作將顯著擴大虛擬現實產業體量。
聚焦技術創新與“虛擬現實＋”融合應用，看好頭顯硬件與內容創作的投資機會。技術創新帶來使用體驗的顯著提升，應用場景的擴展和內容生態的豐富，推動虛擬現實產業進入快速發展階段，將顯著帶動頭顯硬件和內容創作領域的需求提升。看好：1、整機/代工；2、元器件/芯片；3、檢測設備；4、內容創作；5、品牌商。
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