《大行報告》中金料騰訊(00700.HK)上季利潤端明顯好轉 指長期改善趨勢確定
中金發表報告,預測騰訊(00700.HK)今年第三季收入按年下降3%至1,379億人民幣,經調整淨利潤按年增長4%至331.3億人民幣,指雖然公司收入仍在探底中,但相信其利潤長期改善趨勢確定 。
該行料騰訊旗下遊戲業務仍未恢復元氣。內地遊戲方面,由於未成年人保護政策及宏觀環境的影響,觀察到今年第三季原本處於暑假旺季的整體遊戲大盤下行,《王者榮耀》《和平精英》等大DAU龍頭遊戲流水也同樣面臨壓力。但同時,9月騰訊獲批遊戲版號,釋放了政策上的積極信號。海外遊戲在海外出行限制放開和去年同期高基數的背景下,存量業務未有明顯起色,而增量業務仍需以長線思維耐心看待。鑒於內地外遊戲的增長壓力,該行預計今年第三季整體遊戲收入將按年下降6%至422億人民幣。
中金稱引入對騰訊2023年估值。由於未來疫情、宏觀環境仍可能持續影響公司業務,決定下調對其2023年收入1%至6,196億元人民幣,下調對其2023年經調整淨利潤預期1%至1,443億元人民幣。維持「中性」評級,下調目標價20%至328港元,對應預測明年非國際財務報告準則市盈率18.9倍。
該行預測騰訊利潤端預計在今年第三季有明顯好轉,一方面因為公司自身的降本增效,成本和費用均得到有效管控,一方面因為行業普遍的降本增效,如拼多多(PDD.US)、美團-W(03690.HK)、快手-W(01024.HK)等計入聯營公司的虧損額大幅改善。綜合以上要素,該行預測騰訊今年第三季公司經調整營運利潤為391.8億人民幣,按年下降4%,經調整淨利潤為331.3億元人民幣,按年增長4%。
中金料騰訊今年第三季非國際財務報告準則淨利潤331.33億元人民幣,按年升4.4%,按季則上升17.7%(對比2022年第二季非國際財務報告準則淨利潤281.39億元人民幣)。
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