洪灝:美國通脹已見頂 港股嚴重超賣
GROW思睿首席經濟學家洪灝發表報告,指中國PPI、十年期債券收益率和美國就業數據表明美國通脹已然見頂。這些指標和相關性市場並未被市場廣泛討論。然而,通脹放緩也預示著美國經濟的衰退。
不同於美國市場,股債之間的對沖關係在中國仍然行之有效。中國還是一個正常運轉的市場,因此其資產價格蘊含的信息應更有前瞻性。中國十年期債券收益率上行,與中概股背道而馳。鑒於中國通脹不溫不火,若債券收益率上升意味著增長復甦,那麼中概股遲早應迎頭趕上。不過,其他地緣政治因素也不可小覷。
洪氏稱,港股嚴重地、瘋狂地超賣。恆指目前正處於十多年來的最低水平,與1997年亞洲金融風暴期間的水平相當。他表示,地緣政治的陰霾籠罩著香港,香港面臨著一些艱巨的地緣政治挑戰,比如美國加大了對中國半導體技術的出口禁令,中國的美國存託憑證(ADRs)審計是另一個懸而未決的問題。更遑論香港金管局在與美聯儲同步提高最優惠利率方面拖泥帶水,並選擇消耗外匯儲備來捍衛與美元掛鉤的聯匯。但在如此這般的超賣水平上,諸多不利消息肯定已經為價格所反映。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.