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《大行報告》大摩:現貨運費下行風險持續 首予東方海外(00316.HK)「減持」評級
阿思達克 10-06 10:04
摩根士丹利發表報告,指上海出口集裝箱運價指數(SCFI)在夏季旺季期間,由今年7月29日至9月30日下跌了50%,而目前仍未看到現貨市場有見底的信號。 由於全球貿易需求疲弱,加上港口堵塞問題緩和,該行認爲現貨運費有持續惡化的風險。而新船交付或在明年及2024年爲供應方造成壓力,除非全球貿易強勁反彈,否則預期行業週期性低迷或會持續。 大摩首予覆蓋東方海外(00316.HK),予其股份「減持」評級,目標價116.5元。假設現貨運費繼續下降及市場情緒惡化,該行預期集團股價或會進一步下行。 報告料東方海外明年純利按年跌47%,後年跌35%。該行料東方海外至明年底止市值將大致相當於其淨現金持有量,但不認爲這可支持估值,除非現金獲分派予股東。
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