《大行報告》摩通:政策舉措可能暫時穩定市場情緒 惟銷售見反彈內房股才會出現大幅回升
摩根大通發表研究報告指,9月份中國樓市銷售低迷,當局在此情況下採取更多溫和利好樓市措施,在人行宣布更靈活地降低最低抵押貸款利率後,當局又出台三項支持性舉措,包括二手房交易所得稅退稅、國有銀行向房地產領域提供超過6,000億元人民幣融資,以及將住房公積金按揭貸款利率下調 15個基點。
該行認為,政策出台釋出很好的訊號,但預期對樓市未有太大實質影響,對於旨在提高買家負擔能力的政策,或對提振市場信心未見太大幫助。而向房地產市場提供融資,則預期只有國有企業可從中受惠。
市場銷售,摩通指出9月份百強開發商的銷售額按年下跌30%,與8月份情況相若,但與過去三年平均值比較,發現國有房企銷售復甦情況穩健。
摩通認為,政策可能會在一段時間內暫時穩定市場情緒,但只有在銷售反彈後,內房股股價才會出現大幅反彈,目前只看好中海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、保利置業(06049.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)等國企,並建議市場出現反彈時沽售融創服務(01516.HK)、世茂服務(00873.HK)、龍光(03380.HK)及合景泰富(01813.HK)。同時由於流動性擔憂加劇,該行預期旭輝(00884.HK)及碧桂園(02007.HK)仍然受壓。
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