《大行報告》摩通:郵儲行(01658.HK)調整儲蓄代理費率對財務影響輕微正面 惟可能達不到投資者期望
摩根大通發表研究報告指,郵儲行(01658.HK)昨天(29日)宣布調整存款代理費率,下調兩至五年期定期存款代理費率,並輕微上調活期存款及一年期定期存款費率,預期將有助於改善存款結構,推動向「理財銀行」定位轉型。
該行指,調整對郵儲行財務影響略為正面,預期將帶動明年盈利增長1%,但存款代理費下調幅度可能未達到投資者預期,因此相信股價反應在短期內可能是中性或輕微負面。但摩通表示,郵儲行仍然為內銀行業首選,因為預計其將成為鄉村振興舉措及零售復甦的主要受惠者,估值具有吸引力,現相當於預測2023年市賬率0.56倍,股本回報率(ROE)達13.1%。
截至2021年郵儲行共有4萬個網點,80%的網點為中國郵政集團旗下的代理網點。摩通表示,郵儲行早前透露已開始與郵政集團協商調整存款代理費率,因此市場之前已形成了郵儲行將調整不同存款期限的代理費率的預期,憧憬新代理費率機制可鼓勵代理網點吸引更多活期存款,促進理財業務發展,帶來中長期積極影響。
郵儲行將三年期和五年期定期存款的代理費率下調至10個基點及零,摩通指出,此表明管理層決心減少高成本存款並增加活期存款,維持郵儲行目標價6.5元,評級「增持」。
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