工銀國際:治理長期通脹難以一蹴而就 通脹趨勢或偏離當局目標
英國財相關浩霆上周五(23日)公布重大減稅及紓困方案,市場憂慮英政府大量舉債屬不可持續,拋售英鎊和英國國債。今早(26日)在亞洲交易時段,英鎊兌美元曾跌見1.0386創歷史低。
工銀國際發表報告表示,全球經濟迎來高通脹、高利率、高波動,超預期的通脹長期化也引致了美聯儲局、歐洲央行等政策當局的一系列激進行為。客觀分析,鷹派貨幣緊縮雖勢在必然但效果有限,治理長期通脹道阻且長,需要全球政策制定者在預期引導、行為約束、政策跟進和政策協調方面持續努力。
從學理上看,持續性通脹不僅可能是漫無節制的寬鬆貨幣導致的貨幣現像,亦可能是無紀律且不負責的財政擴張引發的財政現像,更重要的是,一旦政策搭配缺乏公信力,宏觀調控的長期績效恐將受損。該行認為,治理長期通脹難以一蹴而就,全球政策制定者需要持續有所作為,加強政策搭配的細節設計,增強市場溝通與預期引導,避免打擊業已脆弱的市場信心。唯有內斂堅韌、行而不輟,全球經濟的持續復甦和物價穩定才未來可期。
工銀國際指,基於IMF新預測,2022年世界CPI年均變化將攀升至7.4%,其中發達國家CPI變化速度上行逾5個百分點,約是疫情前十年物價平均變化速度的4.4倍。發達經濟體需要承受更大幅度的物價變化,長期高通脹的狀態恐將持續。
具體來說,當央行大幅加息提高利率旨在抑制通脹時,將是以犧牲產出為代價,甚至會拖累經濟進入衰退路徑。在這樣的背景下,疊加財政政策缺乏紀律且不負責任,那麼私人部門會對未來的財政平衡產生懷疑,預期未來財政赤字將不斷擴大,政府債務水平會繼續攀升,這樣就需要更高的通脹水平來降低政府的債務比率。如此以來,即使貨幣當局擁有足夠的獨立性並且可以及時加息,但只要私人部門對於財政當局缺乏信任,未來通脹預期就可能會進一步升高。因此,在「利率-債務」螺旋的影響下,長期趨勢通脹或將偏離貨幣當局選擇的長期通脹目標。
目前來看,「利率-債務」螺旋中的財政赤字擴大、債務水平攀升或將成為現實。綜合而言,長期通脹治理難以一蹴而就,堅定且值得信任的 貨幣政策與財政政策缺一不可,全球政策制定者需要持續有所作為,加強政策搭配的細節設計,增強市場溝通與預期引導,避免不必要的「動態不一致性」打擊已脆弱的市場信心。 (wl/u)
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