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安聯研究:航運業今年收入料升19% 明年航運費率料進一步上升
安聯研究發表報告,指對航運股而言,今年是創紀錄一年;料行業今年收入按年升19%,經營現金流按年升8%。即使運費本年至今累跌32%,惟仍遠高於疫情前水平,每40呎集裝箱平均運費7,350美元,疫情前為1,450美元。短期而言沒有跡象顯示運費可重返疫情前水平。 由於新船延遲交付、排放新限制、持續貨車司機短缺及燃料、貨船等價格走高,明年運費料進一步上升,每40呎集裝箱運費料4,550美元。 報告稱,高於預期的現金生成料助航運股遵守新ESG標準,此外,去年航運商毛債務按年減少5%,料今明兩年將進一步去槓桿,在加息周期下屬關鍵。 即使資本開支增加,安聯稱,運力增幅及增速將不會如預期大及快。即使近期投入龐大,亦不與行業運力相稱(經營現金去年平均升274%),絕大部分資本開支增長是來自新船價格去年倍升,而不是新船訂單激增。此外,35%新船訂單將於2023年交付,39%於2024年交付,新船將用於現代化船隊而不是完全用於擴大運力,因IMO 2023規則逼使航運商放棄舊船。 考慮供應鏈壓力及港口擠塞,航運商料維持強大定價能力,源於新船交付緩慢、氣氛變化挑戰、地緣政局及工業行動等。
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