《大行報告》中金料下半年香港本地銀行息差彈性或大於國際銀行 首推中銀
中金發表報告,香港銀行今年上半年營收按年增長0.5%,純利按年增長4.5%,符合該行預期。其中,中銀香港(0238.HK)、匯豐控股(00005.HK)、渣打集團(02888.HK)純利按年錄高單位數正增長,主要得益於息差走闊及非息收入表現良好,恆生銀行(00011.HK)和東亞銀行(00023.HK)則按年減少46.3%和43.9%,主要來自內房風險暴露導致信用成本大幅上升。
該行指,上半年一個月的倫敦銀行同業拆息(LIBOR)與一個月香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)分別上升169個基點和71個基點,LIBOR上行領先於HIBOR,因此境外業務較多的匯控和渣打息差環比提升幅度,較以香港本地經營為主的中銀香港、恆生、東 亞更加明顯。
展望下半年,中金預計HIBOR將滯後於LIBOR進一步上行,銀行間總結餘收窄,推動香港銀行息差改善,其中香港本地銀行息差彈性或大於國際銀行。該行指港銀涉內房敞口風險暴露,由於中銀香港78%敞口為國企客戶,資產質素穩健,而恆生、東亞內房敞口不良率顯著走高,該行預計今年下半年內房敞口仍存在較大不確定性,風險暴露較大的銀行或將持續面臨撥備計提壓力。
展望下半年,該行預計港銀息差跟隨利率上行而改善,而內房敞口與海外衰退預期下信用成本或仍存在不確定性,因此該行建議揚長避短,選擇息差彈性大、資產質素穩健的標的,首推中銀香港(02388.HK)。(wl/u)
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