專家會紀要 | 如何展望新能源車銷量
核心要點
1.22年與21年銷量最大的不同是#蔚小理等熱銷車銷量佔比的快速下降，數據已經不具備產銷跟蹤的價值和代表意義。
2.22年1-6月前20款熱銷車銷量增速顯著低於行業整體增速， 行業銷量的增長【來自於中後位車性的突圍以及車型矩陣豐富後單車平均銷量的提升】，再以某幾款車的訂單、銷量判斷行業沒有意義。
3.當前電動車板塊估值處於歷史低位，歷史上季度性銷量超預期均會帶來超額收益行情，我們判斷數據的起量是當前電動車板塊變盤的關鍵力量。
正文
今日有“蔚小理和整個電動車銷量低於預期”的傳聞，市場目前對電動車8、9月產銷關注度較高，對此我們預期如下：
22年與21年銷量最大的不同是#蔚小理等熱銷車銷量佔比的快速下降，數據已經不具備產銷跟蹤的價值和代表意義。
21年至今熱銷車訂單、銷量市佔率呈下降趨勢，尤其在22H1表現顯著。（蔚小理銷量佔比 21年1月12%，21年底9%，22年6月、7月佔比7%、6%），Tesla、五菱宏光mini等車型均呈現該趨勢。#本月蔚來、理想主要受到新車型鑄造件等爬坡不利的影響造成產量減少，無須進行過度解讀。
22年1-6月前20款熱銷車銷量增速顯著低於行業整體增速， 行業銷量的增長【來自於中後位車性的突圍以及車型矩陣豐富後單車平均銷量的提升】，再以某幾款車的訂單、銷量判斷行業沒有意義。
上險量本月受到出口、疫情擾動較大，8月環比增長8%左右。
8月1-28日（前四周）上險合計42萬輛，疊加最後三天預計全月47-48萬輛，環比7月增長7%-9%，數據不強勢但也符合預期，主要系【四川】、【海南】作爲電動車銷量佔比5%左右的區域，受到疫情和停電影響對終端銷量影響較大。
預計【8月上險量47-48萬，零售52萬，+出口6-7萬，渠道庫存約3-4萬，商用車3萬，終端銷量仍能到65萬】，環比增長10%，該數據表現良好。
9月電車銷量看70萬+，BYD、Tesla擴產持續爬坡，新勢力L9、G9、ET5、ES7，自主品牌SL03，海豹等新車的交付就能貢獻純增量。
訂單已逐步回暖，銷量環比繼續高增，碳酸鋰價格走高已經印證需求
8月第三週開始除零跑、哪吒漲價依然對訂單有影響外，其餘大多車企訂單已經周度環比改善，當前已處於訂單拐點的右側，旺季來臨全年銷量確定性走強。
上週碳酸鋰成交價格有突破52萬，反饋出電車需求的旺盛。
當前電動車板塊估值處於歷史低位，歷史上季度性銷量超預期均會帶來超額收益行情，我們判斷數據的起量是當前電動車板塊變盤的關鍵力量。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
