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《大行報告》花旗:第三季是重新評估內房股政策有效性好時機
花旗發表研報指,中國房地產市場今年夏天經歷行業寒冬,8月份銷售額按年下跌46%,市場情緒低迷,新項目推出市面進度亦相對緩慢,期內31家上市公司月度銷售額按月表現持平,按年比較則下跌46%,跌幅較7月份的42%擴大,只有中國金茂(00817.HK)、華潤置地(011109.HK)及龍湖集團(00960.HK)等7家上市公司實現增長。 首八個月行業銷售按年下跌46%,當中以越秀地產(00123.HK)按年下跌3%領先,另外有9家房低跌幅少於30%。 按銷售目標計,上市房企鎖定全年目標約44%(2021年同期70%),大部分內房對下半年銷售前景存有分歧。花旗估計,若9月至12月銷售錄得10%跌幅,全年銷售額將按年跌約36%。 花旗認為行業有復甦機會,但需要更全面的支持措施,認為買家情緒低迷將令樓市持續疲弱,開發商面對更多流動性挑戰。該行又預期政策可短期推動反彈,但長期仍取決於銷售前景復甦,相信第三季是重新評估政策是否見效的時機,而9月至10月則是決定第四季表現是否能穩定下來的關鍵時期,將貝殼找房(02423.HK)、潤地、越秀、龍湖、旭輝(00884.HK)及綠城管理(09979.HK)列為首選股。
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