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港華智慧能源(01083.HK):1H22核心業績符合市場預期 2023年起再生能源業務有望開始貢獻業績
格隆匯 08-17 00:00
1H22 核心業績符合市場預期 公司公佈1H22 業績:收入101.6 億港元,同比增長31%;歸母淨利潤10.42 億港元,同比增長34%,對應每股盈利0.34 港元,公司業績同比增長主因可轉債嵌入式衍生工具公允價值變動。管理層於業績會上測算剔除公司可轉債公允價值變動及上海燃氣過橋貸款帶來的財務費用增加後,公司核心業績同比下滑15%,主因天然氣銷售業務毛利同比下滑,符合市場預期。 天然氣銷售業務方面。1H22 公司實現天然氣銷售量75.4 億方,同比增長4%,其中工商業氣量同比增長3.1%至46.5 億方。毛差方面,公司1H22毛差0.5 元/方,同比下滑0.05 元/方,環比提升0.02 元/方。 接駁業務方面,1H22 公司新增居民用户數41 萬户,接駁業務收入同比增長32%至11.95 億港幣。 再生能源業務方面,截至1H22 末,公司已開發47 個零碳智慧園區,累計實現分佈式光伏簽約量0.78GW,在建及併網量達0.38GW。 發展趨勢 全年城市燃氣板塊營運指引優於市場悲觀預期。公司管理層於業績會上指引全年天然氣銷售量同比增長8-10%(不含上海燃氣),零售氣毛差0.51-0.52 元/方,雖然天然氣銷售量增速指引較年初有所下滑,但考慮新指引仍隱含2H22 公司天然氣銷售量實現雙位數增長,毛差環比繼續提升,我們認為全年城市燃氣板塊營業指引仍優於市場悲觀預期。 再生能源業務2023 年起有望貢獻業績。管理層預計至2022 年末分佈式光伏併網及在建量有望達1GW,簽約量達1.8GW,於2023 年起開始對淨利潤增長做出顯著貢獻。我們認為隨着再生能源業務的逐步成熟,公司第二成長曲線正在逐步成型。 盈利預測與估值 由於天然氣銷售業務成本上行,我們下調2022/2023 年淨利潤13.4%/10.6%至14.81 億港幣/16.61 億港幣。當前股價對應2022/2023 年8.0 倍/7.1 倍市盈率。維持跑贏行業評級,但由於盈利預測下調,我們下調目標價17.7%至5.10 港元對應11.2 倍2022 年市盈率和10.0 倍2023 年市盈率,較當前股價有40.9%的上行空間。 風險 上游天然氣資源價格超預期上行,再生能源業務發展低於預期。
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