WYNN MACAU(01128.HK):進入疫情後時代 復甦跡象初現
2Q22業績不及我們預期 永利澳門(1128.HK)公佈2Q22 業績,淨收入為1.17 億美元(同比下降74%,環比下降61%),經調整物業EBITDA 虧損為9,000 萬美元(對比2Q21EBITDA 為6,800 萬美元,1Q22 EBITDA 虧損為600 萬美元),差於約7,500萬美元虧損的市場一致預期和我們7,400 萬美元虧損的預期。永利澳門2Q22總收入為1.41 億美元,其中總博彩收入為0.91 億美元,非博彩收入為0.50 億美元。我們將永利澳門的表現歸因於:弱於預期的VIP 轉碼數表現;和公司市場份額的下降;抵消了節費措施的改善。 發展趨勢 管理層在業績電話會上表示: 關於永利澳門運營情況:1)2Q22 每日運營成本從1Q22 的210 萬美元持續下降至190 萬美元。2)公司通過降低薪酬和運營成本實現節費,7 月澳門特區封城期間,EBITDA 每日虧損穩定在100 萬美元,和2Q22 的EBITDA 每日虧損90 萬美元基本持平。3)管理層仍對公司澳門特區業務運營持積極態度,得益於亞洲地區受抑制的旅行需求較為可觀。4)公司將藉助其帶領拉斯維加斯市場的經驗,進一步協助澳門特區實現多元化發展。5)1H22 資本開支為3,000 萬美元,其中包括2,230 萬美元的永利皇宮和770 萬美元的永利澳門維護費用。 6)6 月14 日,母公司向永利澳門提供最多5 億美元的循環貸款。截至6 月30日,公司現金及等價物總額達11 億美元,剩餘循環貸款額度為2.11 億美元。 關於拉斯維加斯博彩業務復甦情況:1)永利拉斯維加斯業務錄得歷史最高EBITDA 為2.27 億美元(根據管理層披露,較疫情前水平增長40%),博彩娛樂場、酒店、餐飲與零售均超2019 年水平。2)2Q22 酒店入住率達90.5%,較2Q19 增長40 個基點。3)儘管國際遊客復甦緩慢,但角子機投注數與博彩桌轉碼數仍較2Q19 分別增長63%和28%。4)管理層暫未觀察到業務疲軟跡象,並對3Q22 的業績增長保持信心。 關於集團情況:截至2Q22,公司現金與流動性資金共31 億美元(包括永利澳門13 億美元和永利拉斯維加斯17 億美元),以及最多5 億美元的循環信貸。 盈利預測與估值 我們下調2022 年收入預測6%至86 億港元,2022 年經調整EBITDA 從負115億港元下調至負147 億港元,並維持2023 年收入和經調整EBITDA 預測基本不變。當前股價對應2023 年9.3 倍EV/經調整EBITDA。我們維持跑贏行業評級和5.80 港元目標價,對應10 倍2023 年EV/經調整EBITDA,較當前股價有22.9%的上行空間。 風險 新冠疫情反覆;監管政策的不利變化;競爭加劇導致市場份額流失
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