再鼎醫藥(09688.HK):產品收入符合預期 關注差異化管線進展
1H22 業績符合我們預期 公司公佈1H22 業績:收入9490 萬美元,同比增長66%;歸母淨虧損2.2 億美元,符合預期。 發展趨勢 核心產品商業化成果符合預期。公司目前已有4 款商業化產品在國內市場銷售,其中:1)核心產品尼拉帕利(PARP)1H22 銷售額6370 萬美元,同比增速77%,環比增速11%,1-2Q22 銷售額分別為2960/3410 萬美元,2Q22 同比增速46%,環比增速15%;2)愛普盾(腫瘤電場治療)1H22 銷售額2440萬美元,1-2Q22 銷售額分別為1280/1160 萬美元,2Q 環比略有下降,我們預計系受上海等地疫情影響;3)擎樂及紐再樂為參與年底醫保談判進行了價格調整,公司因此於2Q22 計提渠道補償290 萬美元,1H22 擎樂及紐再樂報表端銷售額分別為360/200 萬美元。 費用率逐步改善,賬面現金儲備充足。截至2022 年6 月,公司賬面現金儲備12.6 億美元。1H22 公司SG&A 費用1.2 億美元,費用率127%,對比2021 年全年費用率下降24.8pct;R&D 費用1H22 合計1.2 億美元,相較1H21 核心研發支出(剔除合作預付款)0.96 億美元有所提升。此外,公司於2022 年6 月在港交所主板轉換為主要上市,並於2022 年6-7 月先後納入深港通與滬港通。 關注中晚期品種里程碑進展。近期公司多個管線品種取得臨牀及申報進展,其中Efgartigimod(FcRn)已於2022 年7 月在國內遞交用於重症肌無力的上市申請,我們預計有望於2023 年獲批;KarXT 於2022 年8 月在用於成人精神分裂症的III 期臨牀(EMERGENT-2)中取得陽性初步結果,其在用藥早期顯著改善了患者的陽性及陰性症狀且總體耐受性良好,合作伙伴Karuna 計劃於2023年在美國等市場啟動上市申報;Adagrasib(KRAS G12C)等多個小分子候選藥物也在近期讀出了積極的臨牀數據。此外公司計劃在4Q22 啟動全球權益品種ZL-1102(IL-17A)用於慢性斑塊性銀屑病的全球II 期臨牀,合作伙伴Novocur 計劃於1Q23 及2023 年分別讀出腫瘤電場治療用於二線NSCLC 及卵巢癌的III 期臨牀數據。 盈利預測與估值 由於疫情影響及產品價格調整,我們調整2022/2023 年淨虧損由4.3/4.1 億美元至4.4/4.3 億美元。H 股維持跑贏行業評級,但由於1H22 公司進行了股份拆細(1 拆10)及板塊估值中樞下移,基於我們的DCF 模型,我們下調目標價32.1%至56.00 港元(剔除股本變動影響),較當前股價有59.1%的上行空間。 US 股維持跑贏行業評級,但由於板塊估值中樞下移,基於我們的DCF 模型,我們下調目標價31.9%至72.00 美元,較當前股價有59.3%的上行空間。 風險 臨牀結果、產品銷售不及預期;產品降價超預期;產品未能納入醫保目錄。
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