《大行報告》美銀證券:倘港樓價跌近20%或觸發「減辣」 葉太倡議與政府政策方向一致
行政會議召集人葉劉淑儀周二(9日)建議政府考慮免除內地買家在港置業的雙倍印花稅;不過,葉太隨後表示,有關建議是新民黨的意見。財政司司長辦公室發言人亦回應稱,就有報道指政府考慮放寬物業印花稅,政府澄清,沒有相關討論,並明確指出沒有任何相關計劃。
美銀證券發表研究報告,指如果樓價跌幅近20%,則續預期政府將就現行樓市措施「減辣」,截至7月底止二手樓價較去年高位低出7%,本年至今累跌4%;不過,對已居住在香港的非永久居民局部放寬則有可能發生(如總稅率由30%降至介乎15%至19.25%)。該行料本港地產股看法溫和,指估值不高,普遍資產負債表強勁,但料隨著按揭利率加快上升,下半年置業需求將減弱。不過,投資者對任何需求端的放寬憧憬,將支持地產股價格。
該行喜好具強勁資產負債表地產股,如長實集團(01113.HK);基本面具防守力股份,如領展(00823.HK);以及有重新開放主題地產股,如太古(00019.HK)及希慎(00014.HK)。
美銀證券表示,本港住宅需求端面對三大「辣稅」,即額外印花稅(SSD)、買家印花稅(BSD)及雙倍印花稅(DSD)。非本地永久居民置業需面對共30%稅率(BSD加DSD,各15%),遠高於永久居民首置(最高4.25%)或購買第二住宅物業(DSD稅率15%)。該行認為,葉太的建議與政府政策方向一致,在某程度上是有可能發生。
不過,報告稱,潛在放寬對需求的提振料溫和。2016至2021年間透過優秀人才入境計劃入境的內地人(意味仍未有永久居民資格)僅佔2021年住宅成交約8%。由於BSD仍生效,他們仍要面對額外15%稅率,直至居港滿七年。理論上,這些潛在買家不會刺激住宅需求,因他們已經住在香港,在置業後將遷出租住單位。實際上,他們或支持樓價,因他們家庭收入普遍較高,而且有較佳負擔能力。
美銀證券解釋,倘BSD進一步放寬(撤銷),已居住香港的內地買家將提振需求,特別是高端物業。但短期而言料不大機會發生,因樓價調整幅度仍僅溫和。
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