天風證券：從200位汽車產業人士調研看智能汽車產業趨勢
研究背景：新能源汽車銷售火爆，據工信部上半年我國新能源汽車產銷同比均增長1.2倍，市佔率達到21.6%。新勢力和傳統主機廠爲代表的兩大車廠類別齊齊發力。新勢力蔚小理銷量繼續快速上升，蔚小理”的銷量排序，變成了“理小蔚”，哪吒、零跑快速崛起。似乎高歌猛進之中醞釀着微妙而敏感的變化。
新能源車7、8月環比究竟如何？廠商排位再次打亂？高端中端哪端發力？上遊創新哪些環節加速？供需結構如何發展？基於此，我們發放了《新能源汽車產業鏈深度調研問卷》，通過科學的數據證據，解答最關鍵的問題。
研究方法：基於樣本數量、代表性的考慮，天風數據研究團隊選取了具備代表性的200位汽車產業人士，包括研發、生產、銷售、採購、管理等一線和管理人員。其中從業來看整車廠佔比38%（76位），Tier 1零部件供應商佔比21%（42位），Tier 2及其他零部件供應商佔比41%（82位），就7、8月份銷量預期，以及產業鏈看好的細分領域和龍頭公司進行了調查。
結論：調研數據說明業內對7月的預期明顯不如8月。一是側面驗證了此前業內部分車廠砍單傳聞影響了部分供應鏈人士的預期，二也說明業內認爲砍單更多是主機廠短期的供應鏈庫存調整管理。另外，供應商的預期較整車廠樂觀，也是因爲整車廠更接近銷售端，對銷售市場的感知更爲高頻和敏感。
數據展現出來對於看好的汽車品牌排序和上半年銷量排名明顯正相關。其中較爲特殊的是新勢力中的華爲，相較於其上半年的銷量、產業鏈明顯給予了提前的認可，華爲產業鏈值得重視。而近年來交付亮眼的哪吒、零跑，從調研結果來看還沒得到產業鏈的普遍認可。
數據顯示，產業鏈對於細分的零部件環節看好的程度大致和單車價值量高低、與燃油車的差別大小正相關。相比於零部件供應商，整車廠更看好電池、變壓器、減速器等器件領域。數據同時反映整個產業鏈都很重視車的智能化和動力系統。具體來看，整車更加關注動力總成及相關的零部件。體現出來與傳統燃油車產業鏈不同的是：新能源車零部件廠家需要更加集成化，Tier1、Tier2界限日益模糊，供應鏈關係網從縱列型向網狀型轉換。
主機廠與零部件互相看好的調研環節數據顯示：未來新能源車、智能車的比拼，一方面是產品力。但在產業高速發展的情況下，產業鏈的比拼某種程度上更爲關鍵，從這個角度而言，比亞迪具備完整的供應鏈優勢。而在產業看來，寧德時代仍然地位超然，佔據了電池環節的龍頭位置，在成本規模上具備優勢。而非核心部件、非車廠必須掌握的零部件領域，如熱處理的三花、智能座艙的德賽。隨着國產新能源車的崛起，有望誕生一批優秀的零部件公司。
風險提示：樣本代表性風險，行業景氣度不如預期風險，系統性風險
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