美高梅中國(02282.HK):專注成本效率和高端中場業務份額的提升
2Q22 業績好於市場一致預期 美高梅中國(2282 HK)公佈2Q22 業績:收入為11.22 億港元,同比下降53%,環比下降46%;經調整EBITDA 為3.82 億港元虧損,對比2Q21 經調整EBITDA 為1.16 億港元和1Q22 經調整EBITDA 為0.46 億港元,好於5.38 億港元虧損的彭博一致預期。我們將美高梅的表現歸因於:1)良好的成本效率,及2)高端中場業務市場份額的提升。 發展趨勢 管理層於業績會上表示: 關於澳門特區業務:1)疫情反覆導致訪客數量受限,對公司澳門特區業務的運營造成一定影響,但短期而言,公司將專注提高成本效率,長期而言,公司將計劃提升其在高端中場業務的市場份額。2)公司將於2022 年9 月14 日之前投遞標書,得益於公司在全球分佈和非博彩領域方面的優勢,管理層對繼續持有澳門博彩運營牌照保持信心。 關於拉斯維加斯博彩業務的復甦情況:1)2Q22 公司拉斯維加斯業務錄得歷史最高EBITDAR,達到8.25 億美元,同時,利潤率保持在疫情前水平。2)管理層預計拉斯維加斯博彩業務仍有較大潛力,得益於新年假期的到來,國際訪客的恢復,以及拉斯維加斯地區舉辦的多個大型活動。3)國際旅客正在向拉斯維加斯迴流。2021 年,國際旅客僅佔總數的3%至5%,而疫情前,國際旅客佔總數的10%至15%。管理層預計國際航班座位數將於2023 年恢復至2019 年夏季80%的水平。 關於美高梅國際酒店集團層面:1)公司對於在澳門特區、日本(亞洲博彩的另一重要地點)、其他行政區以及數字博彩方面進一步的投資持開放態度。2)管理層提供BetMGM 業績指引,預計在2023 年實現約20 億美元的收入水平。3)2022 年,公司美國市場資本開支預算為7.5-8.0 億美元,澳門特區市場資本開支預算約為4,500-5,000 萬美元,公司已於1H22 在客房翻新和技術升級方面消耗共計2.5 億美元的資本開支。 盈利預測與估值 我們上調2022 年收入和經調整EBITDA 預測3%和2,388%至85.98 億港元和2.29 億港元,並維持2023 年收入和經調整EBITDA 預測基本不變在168.07 億港元和44.27 億港元。當前股價對應7.8 倍2023 年EV/EBITDA。我們維持跑贏行業評級和6.00 港元目標價,對應10 倍2023年EV/EBITDA,較當前股價有45.3%的上行空間。 風險 新冠疫情反覆;監管不確定性;博彩特許權於2022 年到期;路氹物業放量慢於預期。
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