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港股佈局時刻來臨?機構稱下半年有望反彈

港股市場持續波動,多家機構此前相繼指出,市場反彈勢能充足,且基本面改善。國信證券也指出,隨着二季度業績期的來臨,業績下修有望在靜默期前大體完成,市場對公司的預期有望隨着業績期的結束企穩。就目前來看,港股已經積累了較強的反彈勢能。

下半年將面臨兩種可能性

港股在三季度有所反彈,則是投資者可以考慮在三季度完成佈局和止盈的動作,在第四季度謹慎觀望。

港股在三季度維持低位震盪走勢,那麼港股將在宏觀經濟風險出清後,在今年四季度實現U型反轉。

無論哪一種情況發生,國信指出投資者的建議均是在三季度做好佈局。

國信指出,港股的反彈邏輯有以下四個,估值修復、風險偏好切換、股份回購、AH股溢價。

  • 邏輯一 估值修復邏輯。

如果一支股票/一個行業的業績預期下調幅度小於股價下跌幅度,那麼在反彈中便存在估值修復的空間。

國信指出,CXO和生物藥板塊,這些公司在前期普遍經歷了股價的大幅回撤,但是業績預期方面卻有所上調。此外,醫藥保健設備與服務板塊也有充裕的估值修復空間。

半導體行業內分化較大,中芯國際(981 HK)與華虹半導體(1347 HK)的估值修復空間比較充裕。科技硬件主要是小米和聯想,樣本量小,不作板塊推薦。

  • 邏輯二 風險偏好切換邏輯。

國信指出,2021年2月至今,“風險偏好指針”隨着大盤的下行順時針旋轉,高增長個股的估值優勢被削弱;反之,當大盤出現反彈機會時,這些高增長個股也將受益於“風險偏好指針”的逆時針旋轉,在估值層面受益於風險偏好的上升。結合三季度基本面改善的預期,高增長個股則有望迎來戴維斯雙擊。

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目前汽車板塊、生物藥等相關板塊將從中受益,以汽車爲例,主要受益於部分參與了新能源車市場的企業,傳統汽車製造企業的增速則比較低。因此建議投資者鎖定新能源車,而非所有車企。

  • 邏輯三 股份回購邏輯

國信指出,上市公司前期的回購行爲也是一個加分項,可以理解爲公司對自身股票進行的“抄底”。

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  • 邏輯四 AH股溢價邏輯

港股通於2014年11月開通,國信指出自2015年以來的AH股溢價情況,發現AH股溢價目前已經觸及高位,向上突破了+1標準差水平相當一段距離。對於AH兩地上市的公司來說,我們認爲AH股溢價處於高位也有助於相關公司的H股實現股價反彈。

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