機構：互聯網平臺探索第二增長曲線成功率更高，關注美團、阿裏、京東等
國泰君安發佈研究報告稱，互聯網平臺投資邏輯正從需求端切換到供給側，收益來源將從滲透率提升的行業Beta切換爲龍頭Alpha以及第二曲線拐點，現階段估值拐點將來自於格局改善以及對新市場/增長曲線拓展。該行認爲，優秀的產品，大空間賽道，以用戶爲中心且長期主義價值觀的企業會在這個階段擁有更強抵抗增速“地心引力”能力，並在中長期獲得持續性更長的超額增長。互聯網平臺憑藉自身媒介優勢及靈活組織架構、更先進管理方法論，探索第二增長曲線成功率更高，因而超級週期延續時間往往更長。推薦標的：美團-W(03690)、阿裏巴巴-SW(09988)、京東集團-SW(09618)。
國泰君安主要觀點如下：
平臺投資時鐘：博弈滲透率的二階導。
①平臺互聯網過去30年處於技術革命+滲透率提升+估值擴張形成的超級產業週期，現階段處於技術對社會的深度改造階段，新的生產關係對生產力的再適配;②以滲透率增速的變化爲基準，產業發展分四個階段：導入-爆發、加速成長、成熟成長、成熟-衰退;滲透率主導收入/業績絕對水平，滲透率增速決定收入和業績增速，估值由滲透率增速的變化決定：③四個階段股價驅動力分別爲：估值收入擴張、估值收縮/收入擴張、估值切換/實現盈利、供需改善/盈利改善;④超額收益先來自於滲透率提升的Beta，隨後切換到龍頭競爭優勢Alpha;最佳投資時間分別是估值、業績雙擊的增長期，以及供需改善的成熟期。
互聯網總有下一個平臺。
①互聯網發展三階段：Web1.0、Web2.0、Web3.0分別對應了技術導入/效率提升-分化加劇、生產關係重新適配;②7-2-1定律、市佔率50%後放緩、基因決定邊界，上述三條規律解釋了平臺互聯網的週期性迭代規律;王朝建立的必要條件是掌握生產要素和規則制定權，以此決定財富分配結構;③收租並不能高枕無憂，平臺需要持續創新以尋找自身高市佔率的“正當性”;④全球對科技企業監管背後是三個核心問題：科技創新、要素與財富的分配、公共權力 ，最終是生產關係適配新的生產力水平。
趨勢的Beta與龍頭的Alpha適用於週期的不同階段。
①成長期是加速度、業績與估值的共振。收入比盈利重要，增速決定估值，持續多個季度20%以上增速的企業很稀缺;平臺發展初期18-20xPS，100xPE;穩態6-10xPS/20-40xPE;②基礎設施完善/模式確立/競爭勝利/提價/增量市場/政策是重要的拐點，平臺拓展第二曲線的成功率更高;③資本週期通過影響貼現率在產業全週期對估值都有巨大影響，平臺成熟期漲幅中流動性貢獻更大;④產品/賽道/價值觀/管理層是龍頭Alpha收益和估值溢價核心來源;產品和持續創新是基礎，賽道決定超額增長持續性和天花板，用戶爲中心和長期主義的戰略往往能克服商業模式的差異，成爲長期贏家。
風險提示：行業競爭加劇、需求不足、交易因素衝擊。
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