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越秀服務(6626.HK)深度報吿:國資成長物業 TOD賽道優勢突出
股東背景優勢明顯。越秀集團和廣州地鐵集團為越秀服務第一和第二大股東。 廣州越秀集團通過100%持股公司越秀企業持有越秀地產39.78%的股權,越秀地產持有越秀服務66.92%股份,屬控股股東地位。 基礎業務具備可持續增長能力。1)2021 年越秀地產銷售首次突破千億,擁有總土地儲備2711 萬平,大灣區佔比55.0%,廣州佔比47.6%。2)2021年底公司總在管面積和總簽約面積分別為38.9 和58.4 百萬平。一線城市貢獻合約面積佔總合約面積的62%。2021 年新增合約建築面積10.2 百萬平方米;住宅貢獻新增合約面積佔總新增合約面積的70%;商業佔16%;TOD佔11%。 業務形態豐富,具備全面發展能力。公司是市場上少數能提供社區商業全鏈條服務的物業管理公司之一,同時也是中國高端寫字樓物業管理的引領者。 截至2021 年底,公司在管商業,包含商務綜合體、企業總部大樓、辦公園區等,寫字樓總在管面積為261 萬平方米,分佈於廣州、上海等核心城市。 TOD 發展潛力看好,對應潛在物業管理需求明顯。 1) TOD 物業管理是伴隨TOD 城市發展模式衍生出來的物業管理服務需求,大致可以包括:TOD 站點內基礎物業管理服務、站點內部機車和機電服務與管理、站點內部商業運營與服務、TOD 站點建設諮詢與服務、TOD 站點外服務。公司目前已佈局其中三大方向。 2)基於2025 年,全國城市軌道交通運營里程預期達到10000 公里的政府規劃下,預計地鐵站點和車輛段的基礎物業(三保服務)市場空間不低於67.5億。如果考慮其他四項服務,潛在空間巨大。尤其是TOD 站點上方住宅、商業面積一般在20-40 萬方不等,潛在物業服務價值不可輕視。 3)公司控股股東越秀地產是國內最大的TOD 發展商之一。廣鐵集團是公司第二大股東。截至2021 年12 月31 日,越秀地產擁有6 個TOD 住宅項目,總建築面積近3.76 百萬平方米,佔總土地儲備的13.9%。兩大股東將為企業未來TOD 物業發展奠定良好基礎。 投資建議。越秀服務是較為優質的國資物業成長標的。我們預測公司2022年EPS 為0.33 元。我們給予公司2022 年10-12 倍PE 估值,對應市值區間為56-68 億港元,對應合理價值區間為每股3.71-4.45 港元。首次覆蓋給予“優於大市”評級。風險提示:疫情衝擊不確定性;新房增速存在縮量風險。
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