涪陵榨菜(002507):業績超預期 Q3利潤有望再加速
事項:公司發佈2022 年半年報,22H1 實現營收14.22 億元,同增5.58%,歸母淨利潤5.16 億元,同增37.24%,扣非歸母淨利潤4.79 億元,同增28.38%。其中單Q2 收入7.33 億元,同增14.98%,歸母淨利潤3.02 億元,同增74.68%,扣非歸母淨利潤2.84 億元,同增65.16%。單Q2 銷售商品收到現金8.69 億,同增31.4%,經營活動現金流淨額4.27 億,同增50.7%,業績超出市場預期。評論:價增貢獻核心推力,新品類放量順利,在低基數和宅家受益下,收入環比加速。公司Q2 營收同比+14.98%,環比加速主要系去年同期低基數及提價貢獻所致。分品類看,上半年榨菜/泡菜/蘿蔔營收同增3.0%/26.8%/37.0%,泡菜和蘿蔔等新品類拓展順利,量增分別為10.9%和25.9%,核心品類榨菜量價同比-10.0%/+14.4%,價增是更主要驅動力。分區域看市場間分化加大,疫情下宅家消費受益,華東/中原/東北市場同比+37.3%/+8.4%/+7.6%,高於全國其他地區。同時公司加快向扁平化直控終端營銷模式轉變,期內直銷和經銷分別同比+40.8%/+4.5%,經銷商數環比下降260 至2770 家,主要與公司整合渠道和部分弱勢市場經銷商放棄合作有關。廣宣費收縮是業績超預期的主因,成本紅利和財務收益亦有貢獻。公司Q2 歸母淨利潤同比+74.7%,毛利率方面,22H1 運費率為3.2%,還原後Q2 毛利率為60.9%,同比+2pct,主要與5 月起部分低價青菜頭投入使用有關,銷售費用率還原後為14.0%,同比-12.3pcts,主要系廣吿費用大幅減少、宣傳費用結構優化所致,對應22H1 品宣費同降1.36 億元/同比-81.3%。除此之外,大額募投資金Q2 貢獻財務收益4800 萬,同比提振盈利1.7pcts,其他費用基本持平。最終Q2 實現淨利率41.2%,同比+14.1pcts。靈活施策穩定銷量,年內盈利仍然高確定,且隨着品類多元化推進,長期空間有望打開。年內來看,上半年銷量下降主要與提價衝擊、費投不足和新老包裝磨合等因素有關,接下來7 月起適時提高地推投入,如對於主力榨菜提高搭贈,針對下飯菜加大終端試吃活動推廣等,配合對新品類加速鋪市,綜合實現銷量穩定。而盈利釋放邏輯依然清晰,考慮三季度起低成本青菜頭全面使用,預計盈利或將進一步加速。長期來看,醬醃菜空間廣闊,公司多品類、多渠道成長方向正確,且不同以往,此次公司高度重視,不僅從架構調整、人員配置、產品設計和終端選擇上更加用心開發餐飲渠道,而且靈活轉變新品思路,並提高過程考核比重和渠道返點,疊加品牌勢能拉動,本輪品類擴張動力更足,長期成長具備持續支撐。投資建議:盈利彈性仍在加速釋放,股價回落後值得佈局,維持“強推”評級。公司全力穩定銷量增長,7 月起動銷有望邊際改善,在此基礎上提價和費用收縮護航,更加上成本紅利全面兑現,盈利彈性仍在加速釋放中,全年業績確定性較足,此外公司高度重視新品類和新渠道開發,隨着打法逐步捋順和資源聚焦,中長期發展空間有望持續打開。我們略調整公司22-24 年EPS 為1.17/1.38/1.53 元(原預測為1.16/1.38/1.51 元),對應PE 為25/22/19 倍,給予22 年35 倍PE,維持目標價40.5 元和“強推”評級。風險提示:下游需求低迷;市場競爭加劇;費用投放加大;食品安全問題等
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