捷佳偉創(300724):PE-POLY設備又下一城 確定性持續增強
核心觀點:公司成功中標PE-Poly 路線的TOPCon 電池項目。根據公司官方公眾號7 月21 日的推送,公司成功中標全球太陽能某頭部客户的PEPoly路線的TOPCon 電池項目,中標設備包括濕法、PE-Poly、硼擴散、PECVD 正背膜等,表明公司在TOPCon 電池的PE-Poly 路線設備再一次取得了頭部客户的充分肯定,同時也標誌着PE-Poly 設備在TOPCon 電池生產線大規模應用的開始,奠定了公司在TOPCon 電池專用設備及技術領域的龍頭地位。TOPCon 技術趨勢確定,22 年為放量元年,PE-POLY 路線的競爭力不斷增強,公司有望獲益。根據集邦諮詢以及我們的統計,TOPCon 電池路線目前已經建成的產能約30GW,規劃的產能已經超過100GW,我們預計22 年TOPCon 的擴產將迎來快速增長期,有望達到50GW,而招標量有望達到更大量級;根據公司公眾號22 年3 月14 日的推送,公司TOPCon 整線設備成規模順利出貨,在江蘇潤陽客户現場爬坡量產運行,得到了客户的肯定與好評,結合此次中標,説明公司的PEPoly設備在TOPCon 領域的競爭力持續增強,確定性進一步提高,在接下來的TOPCon 擴產潮中,公司有望持續獲益。盈利預測與投資建議。預計公司22-24 年歸母淨利潤分別為9.75/12.57/16.17 億元,對應最新股價PE 分別是44x/34x/27x。捷佳偉創在硼擴、ALD、LPCVD 及管式PECVD-Poly、管式PECVD-HIT設備積極佈局,並逐步進入收穫期,結合可比公司的情況,我們維持給予公司22 年50x 的PE 估值,對應的合理價值為140.00 元/股,維持公司“買入”評級。風險提示。電池技術提效降本不及預期的風險;行業競爭加劇的風險;技術迭代對不同設備影響的風險;下游需求波動風險;貿易摩擦風險。
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